2016年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_Bulgaria_for_the_Period_FY17-FY22_81页_1mb

Country Partnership Framework for Bulgaria (FY17-FY22) Summary

Core Content

The World Bank Group (WBG) has developed a Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Bulgaria covering the period from FY17 to FY22, building on the previous Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) 2011-2013 and informed by the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) conducted in FY15. The CPF aims to support Bulgaria's development agenda by focusing on reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity, particularly for the bottom 40 percent of the population.

Bulgaria, a country of approximately 7.2 million people, has been a member of the European Union (EU) since 2007. It has transitioned from a centralized planned economy to an upper middle-income market economy. However, the country faces long-term challenges related to demographic change and institutional weaknesses, which have hindered its convergence with EU income levels. The CPF outlines strategic interventions to address these issues and align with Bulgaria's National Development Program for Bulgaria 2020 (BG2020).

Main Objectives and Focus Areas

WBG Twin Goals

• Reduce poverty and boost shared prosperity.
• Focus on the bottom 40 percent of the population.

Key Development Priorities

• Strengthen public institutions, especially in the financial and energy sectors.
• Improve productivity growth to support convergence with EU income levels.
• Enhance social protection and address inequality.
• Promote gender equality and support the private sector.

Strategic Focus

• The CPF emphasizes selective support aligned with the SCD and Government demand.
• It aims to be strategic and catalytic, contributing to growth-enhancing and poverty-friendly policies.
• It also supports scalable engagement in areas with potential for transformational impact, including private sector development and public-private partnerships (PPPs).

Key Challenges and Constraints

• Low productivity growth: Only 47% of Bulgaria's income per capita is at the EU average, requiring at least 4% annual productivity growth over the next 25 years to catch up.
• Demographic challenges: Bulgaria is projected to become the third oldest country in Europe by 2050, with a 40% decline in the working-age population by 2050. This poses a risk to future economic growth.
• Legacy issues: Weak institutions, high unemployment, and a decline in public services have been challenges since the early transition to a market economy.
• Poverty trends: Poverty increased from 13% in 2008 to 15.8% in 2013, mainly due to the global financial crisis and loss of low-skilled jobs.
• Inequality: The Gini coefficient was 0.35 in 2014, the second highest in the EU. Inequality is driven by low-paid employment, inadequate social protection, and systemic gaps in access to economic opportunities.

Recent Economic Developments

• GDP growth: After a period of low growth (less than 1% per year from 2009-2014), growth increased to 3% in 2015, driven by exports and improved competitiveness.
• Unemployment: Fell to 9.2% in 2015, the lowest since 2009, with significant improvements in urban areas and among educated workers.
• Fiscal position: Improved in 2015 with a deficit of 2.5% of GDP, compared to 5.8% in 2014. This was due to higher revenue collection and reduced extraordinary financing.
• Banking sector: Remains stable but has vulnerabilities, including governance issues and regulatory weaknesses. The Bulgarian Deposit Insurance Fund (BDIF) received government support in 2014 to address liquidity crises.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Remains a key driver of growth, with favorable conditions such as a stable currency, low flat income tax, and EU access attracting new investments.

Government and WBG Engagement

• The Government has shifted focus to growth-enhancing policies, especially in the energy and financial sectors, and to improving the judiciary, education, and health systems.
• The WBG will complement the Government's efforts by focusing on inclusion, particularly in social protection, gender equality, and education.
• The CPF is aligned with the EU agenda, supporting reforms that will help Bulgaria integrate more deeply with the EU and achieve sustainable growth.

Annexes and Supporting Information

• Annex 1: Results Monitoring Matrix outlines the key indicators and performance tracking for the CPF.
• Annex 2: Summary of the CPS Completion and Learning Review highlights lessons learned from the previous strategy.
• Annex 3: Gender Assessment identifies gender gaps in economic opportunities, education, and political participation.
• Annex 4: Selected indicators of WBG portfolio performance and management are included for evaluation.
• Annex 5: Details the operations portfolio of the IBRD/IDA and grants.
• Annex 6: Provides a Statement of IFC's held and disbursed portfolio.
• Map of Bulgaria is included to illustrate geographic and economic context.

Conclusion

The FY17-22 CPF for Bulgaria is a strategic document that aims to support long-term development by addressing institutional weaknesses, demographic challenges, and inequality. It emphasizes productivity growth, public sector reform, and private sector development as key drivers for poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The CPF also highlights the importance of gender equality and social inclusion, aligning with the WBG's twin goals and the BG2020 development agenda.