2015年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_the_Plurinational_State_of_Bolivia_for_the_Period_FY16-FY20_102页_2mb

Summary of the World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework for Bolivia (FY16-FY20)

Core Content

The World Bank Group (WBG) has developed a Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Bolivia for the fiscal years 2016–2020, aligned with the country's development goals and the twin objectives of poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The CPF outlines a strategic approach to support Bolivia's economic and social progress, taking into account its unique context, including a high indigenous population, landlocked geography, and reliance on natural resources.

Main Points

Country Context and Development Agenda

• Economic Growth: Bolivia experienced strong GDP growth (4.7% annually between 2002 and 2014), driven by favorable external conditions, prudent macroeconomic management, and public investment.
• Poverty Reduction: Poverty rates fell significantly from 63% in 2002 to 39% in 2014, with extreme poverty dropping from 39.5% to 17%. These reductions were more pronounced in urban areas than rural ones.
• Shared Prosperity: The Gini coefficient decreased from 60 to 49 between 2002 and 2013, reflecting reduced inequality. The bottom 40% (B40) saw faster income growth than the overall population.
• Key Challenges: Despite progress, poverty and inequality remain higher than Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) averages. Structural issues such as low productivity, limited private investment, and lack of economic diversification persist.
• Indigenous Population: Indigenous communities are disproportionately represented among the poor, with significant improvements in poverty reduction, but still facing higher vulnerability.

World Bank Group Partnership Framework

The CPF is structured around two main pillars:

Pillar 1: Promote Broad-Based and Inclusive Growth

• Objective 1: Reduce transport costs and improve connectivity for isolated and vulnerable communities.
• Objective 2: Increase access to basic services for the poorest rural and urban communities.
• Objective 3: Enhance income generation opportunities, market access, and sustainable intensification of agriculture.

Pillar 2: Support Environmental and Fiscal Sustainability and Resilience to Climate Change and Economic Shocks

• Objective 4: Strengthen capacity to manage climate change and reduce vulnerability to natural disasters.
• Objective 5: Improve institutional capacity for public resource management and business environment enhancement.

The CPF also outlines a proposed partnership framework, emphasizing selectivity and alignment with Bolivia's National Development Plan (NDP) and the Agenda Patriólica 2025.

Implementation of the FY2016–2020 CPF

• The CPF aims to operationalize the Government's development agenda through targeted interventions.
• The framework includes a consultative process and collaboration with various agencies, including the International Finance Corporation (IFC), Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).

Key Information

Economic Indicators

Risk Management

• The CPF program is at risk due to falling commodity prices, which could impact fiscal and external balances.
• Bolivia has substantial macroeconomic buffers, including international reserves (46% of GDP) and public deposits at the Central Bank (24% of GDP).
• The fiscal deficit is expected to rise from 3.4% of GDP in 2014 to 5.9% in 2015, and potentially stabilize at 2.7% by 2018.
• The current account deficit is projected to increase to 6.9% of GDP in 2015, but is expected to converge to 4.8% of GDP by 2018.
• Gross public debt is expected to rise from 37% of GDP in 2013 to 46% in 2018, but remains sustainable based on the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD).

Conclusion

The CPF aims to support Bolivia's continued progress in poverty reduction and shared prosperity while addressing structural challenges and ensuring fiscal and environmental sustainability. It emphasizes the need for a balanced approach between public and private investment, improved access to services, and resilience to economic and climate shocks. The WBG's role is critical in providing technical assistance and financial support to align with the Government's development agenda.