2017年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_the_Republic_of_Turkey_for_the_Period_FY18-FY21_83页_1mb

Summary of the World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework for Turkey (FY18-FY21)

I. Introduction

The Turkey Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY18-FY21 is aligned with the objectives of the 10th Development Plan and is based on the findings of the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) from February 2017. The CPF aims to support Turkey in achieving its development goals by building on existing programs, consolidating gains in key areas, and expanding the program to address the World Bank Group's twin goals of reducing extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. It proposes a flexible approach suitable for a middle-income country of Turkey's size, taking into account evolving country and regional dynamics.

The CPF was developed through a broad consultative process involving government, experts, academia, the private sector, and civil society. This ensured alignment with client demand and stakeholder feedback.

II. Country Context and Development Agenda

II.1 Social and Political Context

• Economic and Social Development: Turkey has made significant progress since the early 2000s, becoming the 17th largest economy globally. Key drivers include macroeconomic stability, financial sector reform, EU economic integration, and a shift from agriculture to manufacturing and services.
• Poverty Reduction: Poverty incidence has more than halved since 2001, and extreme poverty has declined sharply. The country has seen convergence in social indicators toward OECD norms.
• Political and Security Challenges: Turkey has faced political instability, including election cycles, cabinet reshuffles, and a failed coup attempt in 2016. The government declared a state of emergency, leading to institutional changes and counter-terrorism measures.
• Syrian Refugee Crisis: Turkey hosts approximately 3 million Syrians under Temporary Protection (SuTPs), placing significant pressure on public services and the labor market. The country provides these refugees with legal status, housing, education, and employment opportunities.
• EU Relations: Turkey's relationship with the European Union (EU) is characterized by negotiations and economic ties, especially under the 1995 customs union agreement. However, progress has stalled, particularly on visa-free access and humanitarian admission schemes.

II.2 Recent Economic Developments and Prospects

• GDP Growth: Turkey's GDP growth declined to 2.9% in 2016 due to geopolitical turmoil, global economic conditions, and the failed coup attempt. Growth is projected to rise to 4% in 2017 and remain at 4% in the medium term.
• Macroeconomic Indicators: The current account deficit increased to 3.8% of GDP in 2016, partly due to falling tourism revenues and higher global oil prices. In 2017, the deficit is expected to increase to 4.7%.
• Inflation: Inflation has remained above target levels, reaching 11.9% in April 2017. The lira depreciation and monetary policy have contributed to this.
• Monetary Policy: The Central Bank increased interest rates in 2016-17 to stabilize the lira. It has shifted back to a more orthodox policy framework to restore confidence and financial stability.
• Fiscal Policy: Fiscal policy provided a considerable stimulus in 2016-17, with central government expenditures rising by 15.4% in 2016. However, fiscal prudence will be important in the medium term to address external and internal imbalances.

II.3 Poverty and Shared Prosperity

• Poverty Reduction: Poverty rates have declined significantly, from 44% in 2002 to 18% in 2014, with extreme poverty falling from 13% to 3.1%.
• Shared Prosperity: The B40 (bottom 40% of the population) has seen significant growth in consumption, averaging 4.3% between 2007 and 2012, which is close to the national average.
• Regional Disparities: While most regions have seen poverty reduction, disparities persist, especially between the Western and Southeastern regions. The latter is more affected by the Syrian refugee crisis and under-investment in natural capital.
• Inequality: There is a high level of inequality, with the richest 10% earning 13.5 times more than the poorest 10%. This is among the highest in the OECD.
• Gender Gaps: Turkey ranks 130th out of 145 countries in the Global Gender Gap Report 2016. Female labor participation is 33%, one of the lowest in the OECD and ECA. Financial inclusion for women is also low, with only 44% of women having formal accounts in 2014 compared to 70% of men.

II.4 Development Challenges

• Key Constraints: The SCD identifies four main areas of challenge:
  1. Solid Foundations: Strengthening institutions, addressing geopolitical impacts, developing capital markets, and mitigating macro-fiscal risks.
  2. Productive Individuals: Improving access to skills, education, health, and economic opportunities across regions.
  3. Dynamic Firms: Enhancing access to financing, innovation, and investment opportunities.
  4. Public Assets and Resources: Improving connectivity, infrastructure, and natural resource protection.
• Institutional Quality: Turkey's institutional quality remains below that of high-income countries, as indicated by Doing Business, Corruption Perceptions Index, and Competitiveness Index.
• Geopolitical Risks: The Middle East turmoil and Syrian refugee influx have created economic and social pressures in the Southeast.
• Capital Market Development: A lack of deep capital markets has contributed to formal saving and borrowing gaps, low financial literacy, and limited access to financial services for women.
• External Vulnerabilities: Turkey is dependent on foreign savings, and external debt is expected to rise, increasing downside risks to growth.

III. World Bank Group Partnership Framework

• Alignment with Government Strategy: The CPF is aligned with the Government's Medium-term Strategy and aims to support sustainable development.
• Lessons from Previous Reviews: The Completion and Learning Review (CLR) and Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) evaluations highlighted the need for greater focus on institutional quality, economic stability, and sustainable growth.
• Proposed CPF Priorities: The CPF emphasizes economic stability, poverty reduction, shared prosperity, and gender equality.
• Implementation: The CPF outlines a strategic approach for implementing the program, including technical assistance, financial support, and capacity building.

IV. Managing Risks to the CPF Program

• Economic Risks: The CPF must manage risks related to inflation, currency depreciation, and external imbalances.
• Political Risks: The CPF must remain flexible in light of political instability and geopolitical challenges.
• Social Risks: The refugee crisis and gender disparities are significant challenges that need to be addressed through targeted interventions and inclusive policies.

Key Indicators and Performance

• GDP Growth: Projected to increase to 4% in 2017 and remain stable in the medium term.
• Inflation: Expected to remain in low double-digit levels throughout 2017.
• Current Account Deficit: Likely to increase to 4.7% of GDP in 2017 due to global oil price trends and geopolitical tensions.
• Fiscal Deficit: The central government budget deficit is expected to exceed fiscal targets in 2017 due to expansionary fiscal policy.
• Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): Remain low at 3.2% and well-provisioned, but limited bank resources may hinder further loan growth.

Conclusion

The Turkey CPF for FY18-FY21 is a strategic document aimed at supporting the country's development objectives in a challenging economic and political environment. It emphasizes institutional strengthening, gender equality, and economic stability. The CPF is designed to be flexible and responsive, taking into account the evolving context and regional dynamics. The World Bank Group remains a key partner in Turkey's development journey, with a focus on reducing poverty, boosting shared prosperity, and enhancing economic resilience.