2016年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_Uzbekistan_for_the_Period_FY16-FY20_89页_664kb

Summary of the World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework for Uzbekistan (FY16-FY20)

Core Content

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Uzbekistan, covering the period FY16–FY20, outlines the World Bank Group (WBG) strategy to support the country's development goals, particularly in the context of job creation and economic diversification. It is based on the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) and the government's medium-term development plan, and reflects the WBG's commitment to poverty reduction and shared prosperity.

Main Objectives

The CPF's principal objective is to support the creation of up to 500,000 new, productive, and sustainable jobs annually by 2030. To achieve this, the framework is structured around three focus areas:

Focus Area 1: Private Sector Growth

• Reduce the regulatory burden on businesses.
• Strengthen access to finance and financial services for the private sector.
• Increase private investment and job creation in agribusiness.
• Expand private sector participation through corporate governance, privatization, and public-private partnerships (PPPs).
• Enhance economic governance to support a more market-oriented economy.

Focus Area 2: Agricultural Competitiveness and Cotton Sub-sector Modernization

• Promote market-led modernization of the cotton sub-sector, including sustainable practices and prevention of forced labor.
• Diversify agriculture toward high-value, less water-intensive, and more job-generating crops.

Focus Area 3: Public Service Delivery

• Improve quality of education and health services.
• Extend coverage and target social protection services.
• Increase access and quality of water supply and sanitation.
• Promote energy security and efficiency.
• Enhance reliability and reduce cost of transport services and improve local infrastructure delivery.

Financial Envelope

• The proposed financial envelope is up to $3 billion over five years.
• About one-third will be under IDA (International Development Association) and two-thirds under IBRD (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development).
• IFC investments will be contingent on the government's progress toward a private sector-driven economy, reform of the investment climate, and the economic outlook of Uzbekistan's main trading partners.

Key Challenges and Risks

• Political will and governance are critical for successful implementation.
• Macroeconomic stability is essential, especially given the country's reliance on volatile commodity prices.
• Institutional capacity for program implementation and sustainability remains a challenge.
• Fiduciary requirements and environmental and social safeguards must be strictly observed.
• Data availability and quality are major constraints, limiting the ability to assess program effectiveness and inform evidence-based policy.

Country Context

• Population: 31 million, with over one-third under 14 years old.
• Geography: One of the largest countries in Central Asia, double landlocked, and borders all other Central Asian states and Afghanistan.
• Government Structure: Highly centralized, with limited delegation to local governments and ministries.
• Economic Growth: Rapid growth (8.2% GDP growth over 2001–2014), but recent years have seen a slowdown due to a weakened external environment.
• Poverty Reduction: Official data shows a decline from 26% in 2005 to 13.5% in 2015. However, the elasticity of poverty to GDP growth is below international standards, raising concerns about inclusiveness.
• Inflation: Official inflation has declined from 6.8% in 2013 to 5.6% in 2015, but remains a concern.
• External Environment: Commodity prices and remittances have declined, affecting economic growth. The government has responded with counter-cyclical fiscal policies, but this has led to a reduction in fiscal and external buffers.

Development Agenda

• The government aims to achieve upper middle-income status by 2030, which requires an average annual GDP growth of 6% and annual job creation of 500,000.
• The Cabinet of Ministers Program of Action outlines seven strategic objectives, including increasing competitiveness, reducing government involvement, and strengthening infrastructure and corporate governance.
• The CPF aligns with the WBG's twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity.

Key Risks to the CPF Program

• Political will and governance are key to the success of the CPF.
• Macroeconomic stability is critical, especially with the country's reliance on volatile commodity markets.
• Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability is a challenge.
• Fiduciary and environmental/social safeguards must be rigorously applied.
• Data availability limits the ability to monitor progress and evaluate impact.

Additional Highlights

• The SCD identified 10 priority areas, including improving allocative efficiency, regulatory environment, land reallocation, infrastructure modernization, labor market reforms, and enhancing transparency and accountability in public administration.
• The child and forced labor issue in the cotton sector is a major concern, with the WBG adopting a Third Party Monitoring (TPM) mechanism in partnership with the ILO to address this.
• The government has committed to eliminating forced labor in cotton harvesting, especially in response to international concerns.
• Public-private partnerships (PPPs) and privatization are being promoted to support the transition to a market-based economy.
• The CPF implementation will involve close collaboration with CSOs, donors, and international organizations to ensure alignment and effectiveness.

Conclusion

The CPF for Uzbekistan is a strategic and comprehensive framework designed to support the country's transition from a factor-driven to an efficiency-driven economy. It emphasizes private sector growth, agricultural modernization, and improved public service delivery, while addressing key challenges such as poverty reduction, data availability, and governance. The success of the CPF will depend on sustained political will, institutional capacity, and effective implementation.