2017年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_Mauritius_for_the_Period_of_FY17-FY21_84页_1mb

World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework for Mauritius (FY17-FY21) Summary

Core Content

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Mauritius outlines the World Bank Group (WBG) strategy for the period FY17-FY21, informed by the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) from July 2015. The CPF aligns with the Government's Programme 2015-2019, "Achieving Meaningful Change," and aims to leverage the WBG's comparative advantages through innovative public and private financing packages. It addresses economic growth, poverty reduction, and structural challenges in the context of a diversified economy.

Main Points

Country Context and Development Agenda

• Economic Success: Mauritius is one of Africa's most successful economies, transitioning from a mono-crop, inward-looking economy to an export-oriented, diversified one with a strong focus on financial services, tourism, and ICT.
• GDP Growth: Annual GDP growth averaged 5.3% before 2013, but has slowed to around 3.7% in recent years.
• Per Capita Income: In 2015, per capita income was US$9,780, placing Mauritius in the upper middle income category.
• Poverty Reduction: Extreme poverty has been eliminated, and absolute poverty has declined from 8.5% in 2007 to 6.9% in 2012. However, poverty reduction has slowed, with the bottom 40% experiencing below average consumption growth.
• Inequality: Income inequality has increased, with the Gini index rising from 0.34 to 0.37 between 2007 and 2012.
• Challenges: Despite past successes, the economy faces challenges such as slow GDP growth, subpar employment creation, rising inequality, and a lack of political will for reform. The government aims for a "second economic miracle" with a 6% annual growth rate and inclusion-focused policies.

Economic Outlook

• Growth Projections: GDP growth is expected to increase to about 4.0% in the base case, supported by stabilization in investment and stronger regional and global economic growth.
• Fiscal Position: The country is in a sound fiscal position but faces challenges in containing recurrent expenditures and meeting debt consolidation goals. Public sector debt is projected to fall from 65.1% of GDP in 2016 to about 58% by 2019.
• Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit is expected to remain around 5% of GDP, financed by FDI and offshore financial flows.
• Monetary Policy: The Bank of Mauritius has maintained a repo rate of 4.0% since 2016, with inflation projected to rise to 2.5-3% due to global energy and food price increases and domestic demand growth.
• Offshore Sector: The offshore financial sector is a significant contributor to government revenue and the balance of payments, but faces uncertainty due to treaty changes with India and global regulatory shifts.

Structural Reforms and Challenges

• Need for Reforms: Structural reforms are necessary to address long-term bottlenecks such as education and infrastructure, which are critical for maintaining competitiveness and employment.
• Public Sector Efficiency: Improving the efficiency of the public sector is essential to support economic transformation and meet fiscal targets.
• Skills Gap: There is a growing skills gap that needs to be addressed to support the transition to a more sophisticated and diverse economy.
• External Vulnerabilities: The economy remains vulnerable to external shocks, including global financial volatility, regulatory changes, and adverse climatic conditions, particularly during the cyclonic season.

Key Information

Financial Indicators

• Real GDP Growth: 4.1% in 2011, declining to 3.7% in 2016.
• CPI Change: From 6.5% in 2011 to 1.0% in 2016, then rising to 2.5% in 2017.
• Tax Revenue: Averaged around 18.5% of GDP from 2011 to 2015, expected to remain at 19% of GDP.
• Public Sector Debt: 65.1% of GDP in 2016, projected to fall to 58% by 2019 if fiscal targets are met.
• FDI: Averaged around 3.9% of GDP from 2011 to 2015, with a decline in 2016 to 3.1% of GDP.

Institutional and Policy Framework

• Government Program: The CPF aligns with the Government's "Vision 2030" policy, aiming to make Mauritius a regional hub for exports and investments into Africa.
• Strategic Focus: The CPF emphasizes poverty reduction, shared prosperity, and structural reforms, particularly in the public sector and education.
• Collaboration: The CPF involves collaboration between the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA).

Challenges and Opportunities

• Economic Model: The country's economic model has faced challenges, including reduced trade preferences, lower export prices, and rising oil prices.
• Offshore Sector: The offshore sector is a key source of government revenue and balance of payments stability, but faces uncertainty due to treaty changes and global regulatory shifts.
• Strategic Opportunity: The offshore sector has the potential to expand its services and contribute more to the broader economy, reducing reliance on corporate tax rates and bilateral agreements.

Conclusion

The CPF for Mauritius outlines a strategic approach to leverage the WBG's strengths in supporting economic growth, poverty reduction, and structural reforms. It highlights the need for continued investment in education and infrastructure, as well as the importance of maintaining a competitive and open business environment. The framework also addresses the challenges posed by the offshore sector and the need for fiscal consolidation and public investment. Overall, the CPF aims to ensure sustainable growth and development in Mauritius over the next five years.