2025-06-10-Bernstein-矽力杰股份有限公司（6415）_矽力杰_2025年5月月度销售跟踪-同比下降6_2025年第二季度回落幅度比市场共识低2_13页_453kb

Silergy Corp (6415.TT) maintains an "Outperform" rating with a price target of TWD 500, indicating potential upside of 31%.

Key highlights from the May 2025 report:

• Monthly sales for May were TWD 1,452 million, showing a 6.1% year-over-year decline and 7.6% month-over-month decrease. The second-quarter revenue estimate for 2025 is TWD 4,700 million, up 2% YoY and 15% quarter-over-quarter, but slightly below analyst consensus and the firm's own projection.

• The weakness is attributed to global tariff uncertainties delaying orders, with customers stockpiling inventory from international analog firms to mitigate tariff impacts in the first half of 2025. This behavior explains the strength in global analog companies but is expected to ease as inventories normalize.

• Despite short-term challenges, Silergy's performance outlook for the second half of 2025 is positive. Factors include new socket wins due to tariff shifts, anticipated revenue from consumer products with shorter verification cycles, and a improving pricing environment suggested by TXN's recent price hikes. This could lead to solid growth in margins.

• Financial metrics project revenue growth of 23.1% CAGR over the next few years, with EPS rising from TWD 5.95 in 2024 to TWD 18.18 in 2026. The valuation metrics show a target P/E of 21.1x and an EV/sales ratio expected to decrease to 4.6, supporting the upside potential.

Future risks include slower analog cycle recovery, intense competition, and margin compression, but the investment thesis remains strong due to secular growth in auto analog segments and China's robust domestic demand in automotive, consumer, and energy sectors.