2025-06-11-Jefferies-联合航空公司（UAL）_第二季度预览_季度每可用座位英里收入（TRASM）的新方舟；杰富瑞第三季度每股收益（EPS）比市场共识低10_16页_250kb

United Airlines (UAL) is a major US-based airline holding company headquartered in Chicago, known for its extensive domestic and international operations, including membership in the Star Alliance. The stock is rated "Buy" with a current price of $83.20 and a 12-month price target of $100.00, offering a 20% upside based on valuation metrics like EV/EBITDAR and P/E ratios for 2026.

In Q2 2025, the company reported EPS of $3.90 at the midpoint of its guidance range, impacted by lower TRASM and higher CASM due to EWR (eworld Rewards) bookaway issues and operational disruptions. Q3 EPS is estimated at $2.55, below consensus, driven by yield compression and booking challenges, particularly in the East/West region. Key financial metrics show stable domestic demand, with some international segments improving.

Long-term prospects include achieving an EPS of $12.20 in 2026, supported by revenue growth, operational efficiency, and upgauging strategies, though risks remain from EWR-related hurdles, capacity cuts, and higher maintenance costs. Valuation suggests a discount to peers and history, with factors like sustainability commitments (e.g., net-zero emissions by 2050) providing potential upside. Overall, the outlook is mixed with upside potential in efficiency and down-side in external factors delaying demand recovery.