20250713-国泰期货-豆粕_继续关注关税与天气_震荡_豆一_现货稳定_盘面或震荡为主_7页_838kb

Futures Research Summary: July 13, 2025

International Soybean Market Overview

The US soybean market showed a decline in futures prices due to favorable weather, US-China trade concerns, and a bearish USDA monthly supply-demand report that increased global stocks. Record-high export sales to Mexico supported prices initially, but overall sentiment weakened. Brazil's soybean data indicated rising export costs and slight improvement in domestic crush profits. China's import data remained steady but showed medium-term trends.

Domestic Soybean Meal (豆粕) Analysis

Domestic soybean meal prices experienced a mixed week with initial falls from US-linked declines, followed by gains driven by market sentiment and oilseed trends.成交量有所下降, 提货量减少, 基差恶化. Inventory levels rose slightly year-over-year, with压榨量小幅降低. Overall, domestic demand sentiment was mixed, with better-than-average supplies reported.

Domestic Soybean (豆一) Analysis

Soybean prices remained stable with no significant changes in region-specific quotations during the week. New crop growth was assessed as favorable, with upcoming rain expected amid concerns over drought. Port sales demand was modest, influenced by high temperatures affecting fresh product consumption.

Market Outlook

The report predicts a震荡 pattern for soybean-related futures in the coming week. Uncertainty from US-China trade issues, positive US weather conditions, and an overall bearish global supply outlook cap potential upside. Domestic dynamics lack strong drivers, supporting range-bound price action.

Key Risk Factors include tariff developments, weather updates in key production areas, and inventory changes.