益普索：2022年全球通胀报告_64页_938kb

IPSOS GLOBAL INFLATION MONITOR SUMMARY (NOVEMBER 2022)

Core Content

The document presents findings from the Ipsos Global Advisor survey, conducted across 36 countries in October–November 2022, focusing on public expectations regarding inflation, interest rates, unemployment, taxes, and household spending, as well as perceptions of the causes of rising living costs.

Main Views and Key Information

Expectations for 2023

• Inflation rate: 63% of respondents expect it to rise a lot/a little; 21% expect it to stay the same; 11% expect it to fall.
• Interest rates: 61% expect them to rise a lot/a little; 22% expect them to stay the same; 13% expect them to fall.
• Unemployment: 55% expect it to rise a lot/a little; 32% expect it to stay the same; 8% expect it to fall.
• Taxes: 55% expect them to rise a lot/a little; 32% expect them to stay the same; 8% expect them to fall.
• Standard of living: 28% expect it to rise a lot/a little; 37% expect it to stay the same; 32% expect it to fall.
• Disposable income: 27% expect it to rise a lot/a little; 32% expect it to stay the same; 37% expect it to fall.

Household Spending Expectations for the Next 6 Months

• The majority of respondents (over 50%) expect increases in most categories of household spending.
• Variations exist across countries, with some nations showing significantly higher expectations of cost increases.

Perceptions of Causes of Rising Cost of Living

Respondents were asked to identify the main contributors to the rising cost of living. The following are the top contributors:

• Global economy: 74% believe it contributes a great deal/fair amount.
• Ukraine invasion and its consequences: 70% believe it contributes a great deal/fair amount.
• Interest rate level in their country: 68% believe it contributes a great deal/fair amount.
• National government policies: 68% believe it contributes a great deal/fair amount.
• Businesses making excessive profits: 62% believe it contributes a great deal/fair amount.
• COVID-19 pandemic: 61% believe it contributes a great deal/fair amount.
• Workers demanding pay increases: 50% believe it contributes a great deal/fair amount.
• Immigration into their country: Only 16% believe it contributes a great deal/fair amount.

Sample Characteristics

• The survey includes 24,471 online adults under age 75 across 36 countries.
• Note: The samples in the following countries are more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population:
  • Brazil, Chile, China (mainland), Colombia, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, UAE.

Pay Raise Expectations

• Global Country Average: 12% expect their pay to rise at the rate of inflation or above; 33% expect it to rise below inflation; 38% expect it to stay the same; 8% expect it to decrease.
• Country-specific expectations:
  • Colombia: 27% at or above inflation; 33% below inflation; 27% same; 4% decrease.
  • Brazil: 26% at or above inflation; 31% below inflation; 23% same; 6% decrease.
  • Indonesia: 24% at or above inflation; 35% below inflation; 34% same; 2% decrease.
  • India: 24% at or above inflation; 30% below inflation; 32% same; 11% decrease.
  • Turkey: 22% at or above inflation; 49% below inflation; 14% same; 7% decrease.
  • Saudi Arabia: 19% at or above inflation; 33% below inflation; 23% same; 14% decrease.
  • UAE: 17% at or above inflation; 33% below inflation; 35% same; 8% decrease.
  • South Africa: 17% at or above inflation; 38% below inflation; 26% same; 9% decrease.
  • Mexico: 16% at or above inflation; 35% below inflation; 37% same; 6% decrease.
  • Chile: 15% at or above inflation; 25% below inflation; 46% same; 8% decrease.
  • China: 12% at or above inflation; 31% below inflation; 47% same; 8% decrease.
  • Malaysia: 12% at or above inflation; 28% below inflation; 46% same; 4% decrease.
  • Ireland: 12% at or above inflation; 32% below inflation; 38% same; 8% decrease.
  • Thailand: 11% at or above inflation; 28% below inflation; 40% same; 17% decrease.
  • United States: 11% at or above inflation; 30% below inflation; 38% same; 4% decrease.
  • Australia: 10% at or above inflation; 30% below inflation; 44% same; 6% decrease.
  • Argentina: 10% at or above inflation; 59% below inflation; 13% same; 11% decrease.
  • Netherlands: 9% at or above inflation; 43% below inflation; 35% same; 7% decrease.
  • Sweden: 9% at or above inflation; 47% below inflation; 26% same; 10% decrease.
  • Canada: 9% at or above inflation; 37% below inflation; 36% same; 5% decrease.
  • Switzerland: 9% at or above inflation; 23% below inflation; 45% same; 11% decrease.
  • Romania: 9% at or above inflation; 37% below inflation; 36% same; 8% decrease.
  • Hungary: 8% at or above inflation; 38% below inflation; 33% same; 7% decrease.
  • Great Britain: 8% at or above inflation; 40% below inflation; 37% same; 4% decrease.
  • Denmark: 8% at or above inflation; 34% below inflation; 46% same; 7% decrease.
  • Singapore: 8% at or above inflation; 33% below inflation; 41% same; 8% decrease.
  • Peru: 8% at or above inflation; 21% below inflation; 50% same; 7% decrease.
  • Germany: 7% at or above inflation; 30% below inflation; 49% same; 8% decrease.
  • France: 7% at or above inflation; 25% below inflation; 46% same; 4% decrease.

Key Takeaways

• Inflation and interest rates are widely expected to rise in 2023, with over 60% of respondents anticipating increases.
• Unemployment and taxes are also expected to rise, though with lower percentages than inflation.
• Household costs are expected to increase significantly, especially for utilities, food, and other shopping.
• Perceived causes of inflation include the global economy, the Ukraine invasion, interest rates, government policies, and excessive profits.
• Pay raise expectations are generally low, with only 12% globally expecting their pay to rise at or above the inflation rate, while a large portion (33–47%) expect it to stay the same or decrease.
• Sample bias is noted in several countries, indicating that the survey results may not fully represent the general population.