期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Fall1994_62页_4mb

MBER Reporter Summary: Fall 1994

Core Content

The NBER Labor Studies Program in the fall of 1994 focused on a wide range of topics related to labor markets, including earnings inequality, labor demand behavior, government programs, international comparisons, and the role of institutions. The program emphasized the use of microdata and empirical analysis, reflecting the broader shift in economic research towards more detailed and nuanced data.

Main Topics and Key Findings

1. Earnings Inequality

• Rising inequality has been observed both within and across skill groups, and among hours worked.
• The increase in inequality is attributed to supply and demand factors and institutional changes.
• Supply-side factors include:
  • A decline in the growth of college graduates relative to less-educated workers.
  • An increase in less-educated immigrants.
• Demand-side factors include:
  • Technological changes (e.g., computer use) leading to a shift toward more-educated workers.
  • Trade deficits contributing to the demand for skilled labor.
• Institutional changes such as:
  • Decline in unionization.
  • Reduction in the real value of the minimum wage.
• These factors help explain the rise in earnings differentials among workers with different skills.
• Studies by Bound and Holzer, Blau and Kahn, and Allen show that these factors also affect blacks and women.
• The intersection of worker and firm data is being explored to better understand wage differences.

2. Labor Demand Behavior

• Research has focused on job creation and destruction, firm size dynamics, and employment adjustments.
• Small firms are found to have higher job destruction rates than large firms, contradicting some conventional assumptions.
• Technological changes have led to shifts in labor demand toward more skilled workers.
• Minimum wage laws have been studied extensively, with findings suggesting no significant adverse employment effects from recent increases.
• Dispute resolution mechanisms and incentive compensation are also examined, showing that they influence labor market outcomes.

3. Training and Human Capital Formation

• The program continues to explore the impact of government programs and policies on education and training.
• The General Equivalency Degree (GED) is found to be not equivalent to a high school diploma in terms of earning power.
• Junior or community college education provides a similar return to four-year college education.
• School quality plays a significant role in earnings, especially for minority groups.
• Randomized experiments and instrumental variables are used to assess the causal effects of training programs.

4. Other Government Programs

• The program analyzed the labor market effects of various government policies, including:
  • Head Start and unemployment insurance.
  • National health insurance (with Canadian-style models).
  • Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and retirement systems.
  • OSHA inspections and occupational licensing.
• These studies highlight the complex and varied impacts of government programs on labor markets, with some having intended and unintended effects.

5. International Comparisons

• The program examined labor markets in other countries, emphasizing the differences in labor market organization across capitalist economies.
• Key studies include:
  • British unions and their effect on earnings dispersion.
  • German labor adjustments and French microdata on incentive compensation.
  • Spanish grey economy and Swedish solidarity bargaining.
  • Comparative analysis of East and West Germany and British labor market reforms.
• These studies use microdata to compare labor markets, showing that institutional and market forces vary significantly.

Methodology

• NBER researchers have refined statistical tools and developed pseudo-experiments to derive causal inferences from nonexperimental data.
• Instrumental variables are used to estimate behavioral and structural parameters, with examples such as:
  • Vietnam-era draft lottery.
  • Sibling data.
  • Randomized experiments.
• Despite methodological advances, empirical analysis still faces challenges, and econometricians remain essential.

Conclusion

The NBER Labor Studies Program in the fall of 1994 demonstrates a strong empirical focus, with a wide range of topics and methodologies. It highlights the complex interplay between supply and demand, institutional changes, and government policies in shaping labor market outcomes. The program also emphasizes the importance of international comparisons and microdata analysis in understanding labor market dynamics.