2025-06-08-世界银行-南亚_2025年春季会议发展中国家宏观贫困展望国别分析和预测（英）_20页_4mb

Summary of Macro Poverty Outlook for South Asia - April 2025

Overview

This report by The World Bank provides a detailed analysis of macroeconomic and poverty trends in South Asia as of April 10, 2025. The outlook highlights fragile economic conditions, persistent poverty, and risks stemming from external shocks, policy uncertainties, and domestic challenges. Growth in most countries is projected to remain modest, but there are hopes for gradual recovery supported by reforms and external assistance. Poverty rates are high and widening in many nations, driven by factors such as trade deficits, fiscal imbalances, and climate vulnerabilities. The report emphasizes the need for targeted policies to improve human capital, boost private sector growth, and strengthen social protections to ensure inclusive development.

Country-Wise Analysis

• Afghanistan: Economic growth slowed to 2.3% in FY25, with high poverty (around 48.6%) and fragility persisting. Key challenges include aid disruptions, restrictive policies hampering women's participation, and a large informal economy. Growth projections for 2026 are 2.5%, but risks of deeper poverty and stagnation loom large due to trade deficits and policy uncertainty.

• Bangladesh: Growth moderated to 3.3% inFY25, but poverty is expected to rise to 9.3% due to inflation, job losses, and trade vulnerabilities. Challenges include declining exports and investment, with reforms needed for export diversification and human capital improvement to address inequality and extreme poverty.

• Bhutan: Growth remains robust at 6.6% projected, driven by hydropower exports and services. However, poverty (around 7%) remains, with climate risks and emigration of skilled workers being key concerns. The outlook favors continued poverty reduction through fiscal consolidation and growth in hydropower, but risks include global commodity price volatility and implementation delays.

• India: Growth slowed to 6.5% inFY25, supporting a decline in poverty (approximately 28% at LMIC line) despite high population growth. Challenges include subdued private investment, inflation control, and fiscal consolidation. Growth is expected to pick up to 6.3% inFY26, but global uncertainties could delay recovery, with risks including input cost increases and financing constraints.

• Maldives: Tourism-led growth is strong, with 5.5% GDP increase in 2024 reducing poverty, but fiscal and external imbalances pose significant risks. High public debt and reliance on imports threaten stability; reforms are urged to consolidate finances and reduce vulnerability to global trade shocks.

• Nepal: Modest growth of 4.5% inFY25 supports declining poverty, with remittances and domestic trade key drivers. Challenges include weak financial sector reforms and regional disparities; continued investment in human capital and reforms could foster growth, but risks from global slowdown and domestic policy instability are high.

• Pakistan: The economy is stabilizing with inflation easing but growth remains tepid at 2.7% inFY25, struggling with poverty issues under high population growth. Key risks include fiscal pressures and trade uncertainties; reforms are essential for private sector revival and job creation to mitigate social risks.

• Sri Lanka: Economic recovery is underway with 5% growth in 2024 and lower poverty (24.5%), but vulnerabilities persist from the crisis. Growth is projected to be modest in the medium term, with risks including global slowdown and regressive policies, underscoring the need for consistent reforms and social safety nets.

Key Risks and Conclusions

• Downside risks are elevated for all countries due to global trade tensions, policy inconsistencies, climate shocks, and financing challenges. Macro stability, structural reforms, and sustained external support are critical for poverty reduction and sustainable growth. Addressing informal employment, improving governance, and investing in human capital are recommended priorities to enhance inclusive development across South Asia.