2025-06-08-世界银行-撒哈拉以南非洲_2025年春季会议发展中国家宏观贫困展望国别分析和预测（英）_100页_7mb

报告摘要

Sub-Saharan Africa Macro Poverty Outlook Summary

Core Overview

This document provides a macroeconomic poverty outlook for Sub-Saharan African countries, with a focus on Angola, Benin, and Botswana. It outlines recent developments, key conditions and challenges, and future projections for economic growth, inflation, public finances, and poverty rates.

Angola

Core Content

Economic Growth: Real GDP growth reached 4.4 percent in 2024, the highest since 2015, driven by non-oil sectors.
Poverty Rate: The poverty rate is projected to reach 36 percent by 2027, with high inequality (Gini index of 0.51) and low human capital (index of 0.36).
Unemployment: Unemployment rate increased slightly to 30.8 percent in 2024, while labor force participation rate rose to 89.7 percent.
Inflation: Inflation surged to 27.5 percent in 2024, driven by rising food and diesel prices, and is expected to remain high at an average of 18.7 percent over 2025-2027.
Fiscal and Debt Situation: The fiscal balance shifted from a surplus to a deficit, and public debt fell to 70.9 percent of GDP.
Current Account: The current account surplus rose to 6.7 percent of GDP in 2024 but is expected to decline due to reduced oil exports.
Key Risks: High fiscal risks from oil dependency, political uncertainties, and climate shocks.

Key Challenges

Economic Diversification: Angola's economy remains heavily dependent on oil, which accounts for about 30 percent of GDP.
Private Sector and Job Creation: Weak rule of law and limited infrastructure hinder private sector growth and job creation.
Formal Employment: Scarcity of formal jobs disproportionately affects youth and women.
Social Safety Nets: The need for stronger social safety nets and investment in human capital is emphasized.

Benin

Core Content

Economic Growth: Benin's economy grew by 7.5 percent in 2024, the highest in the region, with the services sector as the main growth driver.
Poverty Reduction: The lower middle-income poverty rate decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 38.5 percent.
Fiscal Deficit: Benin met the 3 percent WAEMU fiscal deficit target, with debt declining to 53.4 percent of GDP.
Inflation: Inflation averaged 1.2 percent in 2024, below the WAEMU target, and is expected to rise slightly to 1.5 percent.
Current Account: The current account deficit narrowed to 7.0 percent of GDP in 2024.
Regional Reserves: Regional foreign reserves increased to 4.7 months of imports in 2024.

Key Challenges

Security and Climate: Security challenges in the north and climate shocks pose significant risks.
Informal Sector: The informal sector acts as a shock absorber but hinders productivity and revenue mobilization.
Debt Sustainability: External debt remains a risk, and a shift towards domestic debt is critical for sustainability.
Productivity and Jobs: Enhancing productivity and creating high-quality jobs is essential for long-term growth and poverty reduction.

Botswana

Core Content

Economic Growth: Botswana's GDP contracted by 3.0 percent in 2024 due to weak diamond demand.
Poverty Rate: Poverty is projected to remain high at 14 percent in 2025, with 358,000 people living in poverty.
Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit reached 9.2 percent of GDP in 2024, driven by increased expenditure and lower diamond revenues.
Public Debt: Public debt rose to 35.3 percent of GDP, nearing the 40 percent ceiling.
Inflation: Inflation averaged 2.8 percent in 2024, below the Central Bank's target range.
Current Account: The current account deficit is estimated at 4.2 percent of GDP in 2024.

Key Challenges

Diamond Dependency: Diamonds account for almost 90 percent of export revenues, making the economy vulnerable to market fluctuations.
Fiscal Buffers: The Government Investment Account has been nearly depleted, limiting the ability to respond to future shocks.
Agricultural Resilience: Climate shocks have disrupted agriculture, which employs about 9.6 percent of the labor force.
Structural Reforms: Needed reforms include improving the business environment, attracting investment, and promoting fiscal efficiency.

Key Highlights Across Sub-Saharan Africa

Economic Diversification: A major challenge for many countries, particularly those reliant on natural resources.
Fiscal Management: Countries need to balance fiscal consolidation with investment in human capital and infrastructure.
Poverty Reduction: Strong growth is essential, but it must be accompanied by job creation and social safety nets.
Inflation Trends: Inflation remains a concern, with fluctuations influenced by global energy prices and domestic policies.
Regional Integration: Projects like the Lobito Corridor are seen as opportunities to enhance regional integration and economic diversification.
Uncertainty: Trade policy shifts, climate risks, and geopolitical tensions contribute to a high degree of uncertainty in the outlook.

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