世界银行-南亚_2025年春季会议发展中国家宏观贫困展望国别分析和预测（英）-2025_19页_3mb

Afghanistan: The economy is fragile with recent growth around 2.5%, but risks include aid uncertainties, trade deficits, and informal economic dominance. Poverty remains high at over 48%, with significant vulnerabilities from climate shocks and social restrictions. Medium-term growth is projected at 2.2-2.5%, contingent on policy reforms and aid stability.

Bangladesh: Growth slowed to 3.3% due to external sector pressures; remittances, which account for 23% of GDP, are vital for stabilizing consumption but not growth. High inflation and fiscal deficits constrain economic activity; medium-term growth faces risks from climate change and policy uncertainty.

Bhutan: Economic growth is projected at 6.6% due to hydropower expansion, but vulnerabilities include fiscal deficits, human capital constraints, and climate change. Poverty reduction efforts are ongoing, but persistent regional disparities and limited private sector development remain challenges.

India: Growth is robust at 6.3% but slowed by global uncertainties; poverty rates are declining, though vulnerabilities remain high in informal employment (e.g., female labor force participation). Fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, such as land and labor market reforms, are needed to sustain growth.

Nepal: Growth expanded at 4.9% recently, driven by remittances and sectoral improvements; however, high female unemployment and informality obscure labor market gains. Fiscal constraints and banking sector weaknesses remain prevalent; medium-term growth depends on reforms implementation.

Pakistan: The economy stabilizes with inflation under 10%, but face high public debt and twin deficits risks. Poverty prevalence is high (42%), and job creation is hindered by rigid labor markets; growth approaches stagnation, boosted mainly by remittances and subdued private sector activity.

Sri Lanka: Economic recovery is ongoing with growth exceeding expectations; however, poverty remains high despite fiscal improvements. Structural reforms face implementation hurdles, with vulnerabilities from high public debt and external vulnerabilities contributing to ongoing risks.