世界银行-中东和北非宏观贫困展望：发展中国家的国别分析和预测，2023年年会（英）-44页_3mb

Macro Poverty Outlook 2023: Country-by-Country Analysis for the Developing World

• Overall Economic Climate: Economic outlooks across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2023 vary significantly, with key challenges including oil price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and divergent policy implementations. Many countries face fiscal and external balance challenges due to declining oil revenues, high inflation, and insufficient structural reforms.

• Country-Specific Challenges & Outcomes:

  1. Algeria: Achieved GDP growth driven by non-hydrocarbon sectors during Q1-2023, but high inflation and current account surplus contraction remain concerns amid oil price declines. Non-petroleum economic diversification is key to sustainable growth.

  2. BahRAIN: Experienced strong economic performance in 2022 but faces vulnerabilities from high public debt and oil price declines. Fiscal prudence and job creation via non-oil sectors remain crucial for stability.

  3. Djibouti: Benefited from trade recovery with Ethiopia but still faces economic instability due to high poverty and fiscal risks. Foreign investment and improved governance are essential for growth.

  4. Egypt: Declared a low-income country due to severe GDP contraction and rising debt. Inflation, foreign exchange shortages, and inadequate structural reforms continue to hinder economic recovery.

  5. Iran: Achieved moderate growth driven by the oil sector, but high inflation and unemployment remain challenges. Fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, including divestment from non-performing assets and diversification, are needed.

  6. Iraq: Continued high dependence on oil revenues, leading to fiscal deficits and inflation concerns. Non-oil sectors are vital for diversification, but reforms are lagging due to political instability.

  7. Jordan: Maintained economic stability with low inflation and growth, driven by non-oil sectors. Reducing public debt and boosting private investment remain key policy objectives.

  8. Kuwait: Projected to slow growth due to OPEC+ oil cuts. Although public finances remain strong, deep structural reforms and economic diversification are necessary for long-term resilience.

  9. Lebanon: Struggles with extremely high inflation and fiscal collapse. Socioeconomic conditions remain precarious amid political crises and severe balance of payment constraints.

  10. Libya: High political instability hampers economic development, while floods have inflicted severe damage. Revitalization of basic infrastructure and inclusive growth are priorities.

  11. Morocco: Benefited from tourism and resilience; growth is expected to moderate slightly. Climate adaptation, fiscal consolidation, and human capital investments are crucial for sustained growth.

  12. Oman: Achieved near full fiscal stabilization through hydrocarbon revenues. Future growth will depend on diversification into non-oil sectors and continued public financial management reforms.

  13. Palestinian Territories: Faces deep economic stagnation due to ongoing conflicts and political divisions. Dependence on donor aid underlines the vulnerability of poverty-stricken population segments.

  14. Qatar: Economic growth slowed post-World Cup impact. Moderation reflects reduced energy prices and production; long-term growth requires diversification from the hydrocarbon sector.

  15. Saudi Arabia: Post-Crude shock, prices and production cuts are causing economic slowdown. Workforce growth in the private sector and strategic economic transformation are key to recovery.

  16. Syria: Severely impacted by conflict, displacement, and earthquake destruction; contracting growth continues. Aid dependency and reconstruction funding gaps remain critical.

  17. Tunisia: Hindered by drought, political gridlock, and high unemployment. Boosting tourism, agriculture, and structural fiscal reforms could help revive growth.

  18. UAE: High growth slowed due to OPEC cuts amid UAE’s shift toward economic diversification. Job creation in non-oil sectors, alongside prudent fiscal policies, remains critical.

  19. Yemen: Despite a fragile recovery period, conflict, and institutional divisions continue to challenge the economy, resulting in lowest real GDP performance.

• Key Observations:

  • Many MENA economies remain vulnerable to oil price fluctuations, high debt burdens, and geopolitical pressures.
  • Poverty trends are worsening or remain high, with the most severe challenges concentrated in conflict-affected nations (e.g., Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon).
  • Non-hydrocarbon growth is essential for resilience and unemployment reduction across the region.
  • Strengthened fiscal discipline, structural reforms, foreign direct investment, and climate resilience are among the pathways toward sustainable, inclusive growth.