世界银行-东亚和太平洋_2025年春季会议发展中国家宏观贫困展望国别分析和预测（英）-2025_37页_4mb

Summary of the Macropoverty Outlook for East Asia and the Pacific

Cambodia

Core Content

Cambodia is projected to experience a moderation in real GDP growth to 4.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 due to global trade policy shifts and uncertainty. Poverty is expected to decline gradually, though the pace may be constrained by rising inflation, uneven sectoral performance, and vulnerabilities in labor-intensive export industries.

Main Challenges

• Cambodia's economy is highly dependent on exports, particularly to the US, which accounts for 39% of total exports and 29% of GDP.
• The domestic value-added in US exports is 8% of GDP, compared to 6% to Europe and 3% to China.
• The garment, travel goods, and footwear sectors, which account for about half of exports to the US, are major contributors to employment, with over one million workers, mostly women.
• The informal sector and property construction have seen slower growth, affecting job creation and economic stability.
• The banking sector has experienced a rise in nonperforming loan ratios, signaling financial instability.

Key Indicators

Outlook

• The recovery remains uneven, affecting poverty reduction rates across regions and sectors.
• Policy measures should focus on maintaining macroeconomic stability, accelerating trade and investment reforms, and enhancing social safety nets.
• Long-term growth needs to be rebalanced away from construction, real estate, and garment exports toward more diversified and resilient sectors.

Central Pacific Islands

Core Content

The Central Pacific Islands are expected to experience moderate growth, with Kiribati and Tuvalu showing relatively stronger performance. Nauru faces a fiscal cliff due to its reliance on volatile revenues from the RPC and fishing, while Tuvalu and Kiribati must address climate vulnerability and narrow economic bases.

Main Challenges

• All three countries have narrow economic bases and are heavily reliant on public sector financing.
• Kiribati's public expenditure is at 98% of GDP, creating fiscal risks and market distortions.
• Nauru's economy is dominated by fishing and RPC operations, which are subject to uncertainty.
• Tuvalu's limited infrastructure and economies of scale hinder private sector development.

Key Indicators

Outlook

• Growth is expected to moderate in 2025 and 2026, with potential further slowdown due to trade uncertainty.
• Kiribati needs to stabilize fiscal revenues and target subsidies more effectively.
• Nauru's new port and potential for online services could diversify the economy.
• Tuvalu's growth will be driven by construction and public administration, but outward migration could reduce productivity over time.
• Climate-related risks and volatile revenue streams remain significant challenges.

China

Core Content

China's growth is projected to moderate from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.0% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026. The slowdown is driven by structural factors, including an aging population, high debt levels, and slowing productivity growth.

Main Challenges

• The property sector remains a key drag on economic activity, with real estate investment declining by 10.1% in real terms.
• Domestic demand has weakened due to low consumer confidence and prolonged property sector correction.
• Policymakers face the challenge of balancing short-term growth support with long-term structural reforms.

Key Indicators

Outlook

• Growth moderation is expected to continue, with exports declining and manufacturing investment facing uncertainty.
• Fiscal policy will play a key role in supporting growth and mitigating trade policy impacts.
• Poverty reduction is projected to slow, with the poverty rate expected to fall to 10.5% and 9.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
• Structural reforms in investment, productivity, and fiscal consolidation are crucial for sustainable growth and poverty reduction.

Fiji

Core Content

Fiji is projected to experience a slowdown in GDP growth to 3.2% by 2027, driven by sustained tourist arrivals. Fiscal consolidation is expected to support debt reduction, though risks include trade uncertainty, natural disasters, and external shocks.

Main Challenges

• Tourism is a key economic driver, but the country's small size and climate vulnerability pose long-term risks.
• Skilled labor shortages and import dependence challenge economic diversification.
• Structural reforms in investment, productivity, and fiscal policy are essential for sustainable growth.

Key Indicators

Outlook

• Growth is expected to slow, with tourism continuing to be a major driver.
• Fiscal consolidation is important for reducing debt and promoting long-term stability.
• Structural reforms in investment and productivity are necessary to ensure sustainable growth and poverty reduction.