2025-06-02-世界银行-中东和北非_2025年春季会议发展中国家宏观贫困展望国别分析和预测（英）_42页_5mb

Middle East and North Africa Macroeconomic Poverty Outlook Summary (April 2025)

The World Bank's Macroeconomic Poverty Outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region highlights several key themes for 2025:

Key Context and Challenges

• Global Uncertainty: Economic growth faces headwinds from trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts (particularly in the Middle East), and global slowdown, affecting demand for oil and key commodities.
• Oil Volatility: Ongoing OPEC+ adjustments and potential sanctions impacts pose significant risks, especially fiscal and external balance vulnerabilities for oil-dependent economies.
• Diversification Efforts: Many countries (e.g., UAE, Oman) are advancing non-hydrocarbon sectors (tourism, logistics, technology) to enhance resilience, while others (e.g., Algeria, Iraq) remain heavily reliant on oil.
• Climate and Geopolitical Risks: Extreme weather events, supply chain disruptions due to conflicts, and climate-related stress (e.g., droughts in Egypt, Morocco) exacerbate economic challenges.

Key Trends and Projections

1. GDP Growth: Growth is projected to stabilize regionally around 2.5% in 2025. Key exceptions include:

   • Gaza and Syria: Severe contractions (-1.0% and -1.5%) due to prolonged conflicts.
   • Qatar, UAE: Moderate growth (2.4-3.9%) driven by infrastructure, tourism, and trade resilience.
   • Algeria, Tunisia: Incremental recovery tied to oil price normalization and non-oil gains.

2. Poverty Reduction: Many countries are making progress. Notable declines include Iran (poverty rate down to 19%) and Libya (19.9% in 2023/24). However:

   • Syria, Yemen, Yemenis continue facing entrenched poverty.
   • Red Sea Crisis undermines export-oriented economies (e.g., Djibouti, Egypt).

3. Inflation:

   • Overall in MENA averaged ~4%, down from 2023–24 peaks.
   • High inflation (e.g., Palestine ~58%, Iran ~35%) persists in conflict-affected areas, disproportionately harming low-income households.
   • Core inflation remains elevated due to energy subsidies, wage pressures, and service disruptions.

4. Fiscal and External Balances:

   • Most countries (e.g., UAE, Qatar) maintain fiscal surpluses and strong external positions.
   • High-debt countries (e.g., Lebanon ~180% of GDP, Yemen ~112%) face risks of deficits widening due to falling oil prices and borrowing needs.
   • Central bank liquidity buffers (e.g., UAE, Kuwait) provide stability amid trade disruptions.

Risks and Needs

• Systemic Risks: Escalating trade policies, oil price volatility, and global recessions threaten recovery, especially interconnected economies like Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia.
• Reforms Urgent: Strengthening SOEs, tax systems, and human capital (e.g., female employment) is critical for private-led job creation.
• Climate Focus: Green infrastructure transitions are advancing (e.g., UAE renewable goals, Tunisia”; however, supply chain bottlenecks for clean tech hamper scaling.
• Middle East Geopolitics: Persistent conflicts in Gaza, Syria, Yemen, and Red Sea tensions hinder reconstruction and diversification.

Downside Risk Factors

• Persistent Conflicts: Yemen, Syria, Gaza—contribute to humanitarian crises and population displacement.
• Trade/Economic Policy Shifts: U.S. and global trade uncertainty curtail growth and diversification gains.
• Energy Shortages: Acute fuel/electricity deficits constrain economic activity (e.g., Iran, Yemen).

Opportunities

• Post-Pandemic/Conflict Reconstruction: Aid flows and sovereign wealth (e.g., Kuwait, UAE) offer debt-stabilization opportunities.
• Private Sector-Led Job Creation: Structural reforms aiming for inclusive growth (e.g., Algeria’s private investment push, Tunisia’s SME reforms) can leverage demographic dividends if implemented.

The outlook underscores the need for coordinated reforms, fiscal discipline, and international engagement to navigate external shocks while promoting inclusive, climate-resilient growth.