世界银行-撒哈拉以南非洲_2025年春季会议发展中国家宏观贫困展望国别分析和预测（英）-2025_99页_6mb

Sub-Saharan Africa Macro Poverty Outlook Summary

Core Overview

This document provides a macroeconomic and poverty outlook for Sub-Saharan African countries, focusing on key economic indicators, challenges, and future projections. It highlights the economic performance, structural issues, and policy implications for selected countries, emphasizing the need for diversification, improved governance, and investment in human capital to reduce poverty and enhance resilience.

Country-Specific Highlights

Angola

• Economic Growth: Real GDP growth reached 4.4% in 2024, the highest since 2015, driven by non-oil activities.
• Poverty Rate: Projected to reach 36% by 2027, with high inequality (Gini index 0.51) and limited human capital.
• Challenges: Heavy reliance on oil (30% of GDP), weak rule of law, low public expenditure efficiency, and vulnerability to climate shocks.
• Fiscal Situation: Fiscal balance shifted from a surplus of 1.3% in 2023 to a deficit of 1.5% in 2024. Public debt fell to 70.9% of GDP in 2024.
• Inflation: Surged to 27.5% in 2024, with a projected decline to 18.7% over 2025-2027.
• Outlook: Growth is expected to slow to 2.7% in 2025 and remain around 2.9% annually in the medium term. Poverty reduction is hindered by subdued employment and income growth. The development of the Lobito Corridor is seen as key for economic diversification.

Benin

• Economic Growth: Achieved 7.5% growth in 2024, surpassing the Sub-Saharan Africa average.
• Poverty Reduction: Lower middle-income poverty rate dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 38.5% in 2024, projected to fall to 30.3% by 2027.
• Challenges: Regional security risks, climate shocks, and trade uncertainties.
• Fiscal Situation: Fiscal deficit reduced to 3.0% of GDP in 2024, and debt fell to 53.4% of GDP. External debt accounts for 72.6% of total debt.
• Inflation: Declined to 1.2% in 2024, below the WAEMU target of 1-3%.
• Outlook: Growth is expected to average 7.1% over 2025-2027. Inflation is projected to rise to 1.5%, but remain within the WAEMU target. The CAD is expected to narrow to 4.3% by 2027, supported by FDI and external debt. Security and climate risks could negatively impact the outlook.

Botswana

• Economic Growth: GDP contracted by 3.0% in 2024 due to a weak global diamond market.
• Poverty Rate: Poverty is projected to increase to 13.7% in 2024, with a high Gini coefficient (not provided).
• Challenges: Overreliance on diamonds (90% of export revenues), limited economic diversification, and climate shocks.
• Fiscal Situation: Fiscal deficit is estimated at 9.2% of GDP in 2024, with public debt rising to 35.3% of GDP. The Government Investment Account is nearly depleted.
• Inflation: Headline inflation averaged 2.8% in 2024, below the target range.
• Outlook: GDP growth is projected to rebound to 0.6% in 2025 and converge to 4.0% in the medium term. Poverty is expected to remain high due to low labor intensity of growth. The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 8.5% of GDP in 2025, but risks remain due to uncertain diamond market and climate disruptions.

Key Themes and Challenges

• Economic Diversification: All three countries face challenges due to overreliance on a single sector (oil in Angola, diamonds in Botswana). Diversification is critical for long-term growth and poverty reduction.
• Fiscal and Debt Sustainability: Angola and Benin show signs of improving fiscal positions, while Botswana faces a deteriorating fiscal situation. Debt sustainability remains a concern, especially for external debt in Benin and the risk of exceeding the debt ceiling in Botswana.
• Poverty and Inequality: High poverty rates persist in Angola and Botswana, with inequality being a major barrier to inclusive growth. Benin has shown better progress, but inequality still limits the benefits of growth.
• Inflation and Monetary Policy: Inflation remains high in all three countries, with Angola and Botswana facing upward risks due to fuel subsidy reforms and energy price increases.
• Infrastructure and Human Capital: Limited infrastructure and low human capital indices are key constraints on growth potential.
• Climate Vulnerability: All three countries are exposed to climate shocks, which impact agriculture and exacerbate poverty and inequality.

Policy Recommendations

• Enhance Economic Diversification: Develop non-oil/non-diamond sectors, such as agriculture, services, and industry, to reduce vulnerability to global price fluctuations.
• Strengthen Fiscal Management: Improve public expenditure efficiency, implement structural reforms, and manage fiscal buffers to ensure long-term sustainability.
• Invest in Human Capital: Increase education and healthcare investment to improve productivity and reduce inequality.
• Promote Regional Integration: Develop infrastructure projects like the Lobito Corridor and strengthen trade partnerships to boost economic resilience.
• Implement Effective Monetary Policy: Maintain tight monetary policy to control inflation, while ensuring it supports economic recovery and growth.
• Address Climate Risks: Develop strategies to enhance agricultural resilience and reduce the impact of climate shocks on vulnerable populations.