UBS_Economics-APAC_Economic_Perspectives_Asia_by_the_Numbers_December_20...-112489422_49页_6mb

报告摘要

APAC Economic Perspectives Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the economic conditions in Asia, focusing on GDP, consumption, investment, and trade dynamics, as well as central bank policies and inflation trends. It highlights the mixed performance of China's growth, the export trends across the region, and the challenges faced by central banks in balancing monetary policy amidst economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Main Points

1. China's Growth Picture

Growth Momentum: China's growth showed better-than-expected momentum in October, but November data revealed a mixed picture.
Property Sales: Property sales rebounded to a positive YoY growth, with higher-tier cities performing better than lower-tier ones.
New Starts: New construction starts remained weak, affecting real estate investment and construction activities.
Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC): Set a more supportive tone, emphasizing proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy. Reviving household consumption and stabilizing the property market were top priorities.
Policy Outlook: The government is expected to announce the 2025 growth target and policy stimulus details at the National Party Congress in March.

2. Exports

Regional Performance: Exports in Asia held up but growth rates decelerated.
Korea+Taiwan: Export growth edged down slightly by 0.1% in November.
ASEAN-5: Export growth rose by 2% in November.
US Shipment: Accelerated shipments to the US could signal front-loading before potential tariffs.
Tech Sector: Tech-related E&E exports in Malaysia and electronics NODX in Singapore were near their peaks, though growth was slowing.
PMI New Export Orders: Mixed readings, with improvements only in China, Korea, Taiwan, and India, though month-to-month variability is high.
Export Front-Loading: Could support Asia's growth before possible trade tensions, but monthly data remains volatile.

3. Central Bank Policies

Policy Rates: BI, BoT, CBC, and RBI kept rates unchanged in December.
BSP: Cut by 25bp, while RBI lowered the cash reserve ratio by 50bp to 4%.
BI: Changed expectations to two rate cuts (total 50bp) in 2025, with FX stability as a priority.
BSP: Sound more hawkish, highlighting inflation risks from peso depreciation.
BoT: No present urgency to ease, with a potential delay in rate cuts.
MAS: Expected to ease to 1% p.a. from 1.5% p.a. in January 2025, amid faster-than-expected disinflation, but this is a close call due to trade tariff concerns.

4. GDP Growth

Asia Ex-Japan: Real GDP growth was mixed, with China, India, and Vietnam showing strong growth expectations.
China: Real GDP growth slowed in 2024, with a projected 4.8% for 2024 and 4.0% for 2025.
India: Projected to grow at 6.3% in 2024 and 6.3% in 2025, with a peak in Q1 2024.
Japan: Projected to grow at 1.1% in 2025, with a decline in Q3 2024.
Korea: Projected to grow at 1.9% in 2025, with a peak in Q2 2024.
Malaysia: Projected to grow at 4.6% in 2025, with a peak in Q3 2024.
Philippines: Projected to grow at 6.0% in 2025, with a peak in Q3 2024.
Singapore: Projected to grow at 2.2% in 2025, with a peak in Q2 2024.
Taiwan: Projected to grow at 3.2% in 2025, with a peak in Q3 2024.
Thailand: Projected to grow at 3.1% in 2025, with a peak in Q3 2024.
Vietnam: Projected to grow at 6.9% in 2025, with a peak in Q3 2024.

5. Consumption

Importance: Private consumption accounts for 40-50% of Asian ex-Japan GDP, significantly influencing GDP growth.
China: Real retail sales growth slowed in 2024, with a projected 2.7% for 2024 and 3.6% for 2025.
Hong Kong: Real consumption growth declined, with a projected 2.3% for 2024 and 1.9% for 2025.
India: Projected to grow at 6.0% in 2025, with a peak in Q3 2024.
Indonesia: Projected to grow at 5.2% in 2024 and 5.0% in 2025.
Japan: Real consumption growth declined, with a projected 1.1% for 2025.
Korea: Real consumption growth declined, with a projected 2.0% for 2025.
Malaysia: Projected to grow at 5.6% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025.
Philippines: Projected to grow at 6.2% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025.
Singapore: Projected to grow at 6.0% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025.
Taiwan: Real consumption growth declined, with a projected 3.6% for 2025.
Thailand: Projected to grow at 4.6% in 2025.
Vietnam: Projected to grow at 7.5% in 2025.

6. Investment

Importance: High savings and investment ratios are key to growth in Asia.
China: Real fixed asset investment is projected to grow at 4.5% in 2025.
Hong Kong: Projected to grow at 4.4% in 2025.
India: Projected to grow at 5.5% in 2025.
Indonesia: Projected to grow at 7.3% in 2025.
Japan: Projected to grow at 0.9% in 2025.
Korea: Projected to grow at 0.9% in 2025.
Malaysia: Projected to grow at 8.1% in 2025.
Philippines: Projected to grow at 6.9% in 2025.
Singapore: Projected to grow at 1.1% in 2025.
Taiwan: Projected to grow at 6.9% in 2025.
Thailand: Projected to grow at 2.6% in 2025.
Vietnam: Projected to grow at 6.0% in 2025.

7. Trade

Exports: A primary driver of the business cycle and a significant source of income.
China: Export growth was projected to rise in 2025, but was negative in Q4 2023.
Hong Kong: Export growth was projected to rise, but was negative in Q4 2023.
India: Export growth was projected to rise in 2025, but was negative in Q4 2023.
Indonesia: Export growth was projected to rise, but was negative in Q4 2023.
Japan: Export growth was projected to rise, but was negative in Q4 2023.
Korea: Export growth was projected to rise, but was negative in Q4 2023.
Malaysia: Export growth was projected to rise, but was negative in Q4 2023.
Philippines: Export growth was projected to rise, but was negative in Q4 2023.
Singapore: Export growth was projected to rise, but was negative in Q4 2023.
Taiwan: Export growth was projected to rise, but was negative in Q4 2023.
Thailand: Export growth was projected to rise, but was negative in Q4 2023.
Vietnam: Export growth was projected to rise, but was negative in Q4 2023.

8. Industrial Production

Importance: Industrial production is closely linked to the profit and employment cycles.
Asia: Industrial production growth was mixed, with some countries showing improvement.
China: PMI and industrial production showed mixed trends, with a peak in Q2 2024.
India: Industrial production growth was projected to rise, with a peak in Q3 2024.
North Asia: Industrial production growth was projected to rise, with a peak in Q3 2024.
Singapore: Industrial production growth was projected to rise, with a peak in Q3 2024.
Indonesia and Thailand: Industrial production growth was projected to rise, with a peak in Q3 2024.
Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam: Industrial production growth was projected to rise, with a peak in Q3 2024.

9. Inflation

Importance: Inflation provides insights into the direction of monetary policy.
China: Headline inflation was low, with a projected 0.4% for 2024 and 0.1% for 2025.
Hong Kong: Headline inflation was projected to rise to 1.2% in 2024.
India: Headline inflation was projected to rise to 5.5% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025.
Indonesia: Headline inflation was projected to rise to 2.3% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025.
Japan: Headline inflation was projected to rise to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025.
Korea: Headline inflation was projected to rise to 1.9% in 2025.
Malaysia: Headline inflation was projected to rise to 2.2% in 2025.
Philippines: Headline inflation was projected to rise to 2.7% in 2025.
Singapore: Headline inflation was projected to rise to 1.9% in 2025.
Taiwan: Headline inflation was projected to rise to 1.8% in 2025.
Thailand: Headline inflation was projected to rise to 1.1% in 2025.
Vietnam: Headline inflation was projected to rise to 3.3% in 2025.

10. Key Global Indicators

US Non-Petroleum Imports: Showed mixed trends, with potential implications for Asia's exports.
EU Import Demand: Also showed mixed trends, influencing Asia's trade dynamics.
US ISM Index: Suggested mixed manufacturing activity.
PMI Manufacturing: Mixed readings, with some improvement in China, Korea, Taiwan, and India.

11. Conclusion

The region faces mixed economic conditions, with China's growth remaining uncertain.
Central banks are navigating the challenge of balancing inflation control and growth support.
Export front-loading may provide temporary growth support, but trade tensions could pose risks.
Industrial production and consumption trends indicate a complex economic landscape.
Inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions across the region.

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