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Vietnam's export growth accelerated significantly in April 2025, reaching 19.8% year-over-year, higher than the 15.5% growth in March, driven by unprecedented US tariff uncertainty and rushed shipments ahead of the tariff suspension.

Key findings:

• US shipments surged to record levels, accounting for a major driver of growth, with the highest export volumes in recent history.
• Consumer electronics showed the most notable acceleration in exports, with a 28% y/y growth, partly due to tariff exemptions announced on April 11.
• The growth is attributed to exporters rushing shipments to capitalize on the 90-day tariff suspension, given the high original tariff rate of 46% for Vietnam.

However, the sustainability is questionable:

• UBS doubts the long-term viability due to signs of weak real demand, such as a sharp drop in PMI new export orders, and projections of declining imports in the US.
• Upcoming factors include potential changes to the tariff exemption list and the start of US-Vietnam trade talks on May 7, which could influence outcomes if applications for exemptions (e.g., for footwear) are approved.

Overall, while export data shows a spike, the report suggests this may not reflect sustainable demand growth, with risks from tariff uncertainties and trade dynamics.