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报告摘要

US Economic Perspectives Summary

December CPI Recap: A Slowing Trend

Core Content

Headline CPI increased by +0.39% in December, seasonally adjusted, marking a notable upward trend since June.
The 12-month inflation rate rose to 2.89%, up from 2.44% in September, indicating a gradual increase in overall inflation.
Core CPI increased by +0.23%, which is below both the UBS Econ projection (+0.29%) and the Bloomberg consensus average (+0.25%), showing a slower trend in core inflation compared to expectations.

Key Observations

Food prices increased by +31bp, with a 12-month change of +2.5%.
Energy prices increased by +2.63% in December, though the 12-month change was -0.5%.
Food away from home rose by 30bp, slightly above the 28bp pre-pandemic trend, suggesting inflation in this category is still above target but slowing.
The core CPI is primarily driven by rents and volatile services, with OER (owners' equivalent rent) increasing by 31bp, slightly below the UBS Econ projection of 39bp.

Components: Slowing OER, Strength in More Volatile Categories

Core CPI Components

Core CPI non-rent services rose by 21bp, in line with expectations, but the trend has been slowing since late spring.
Lodging away from home declined by 1% in December after a strong increase in November.
Airfares rose by nearly 4%, indicating continued volatility in services.

OER Analysis

The OER increase in December is a pickup from November, but still below the pre-June pace.
The six smallest monthly OER increases since 2021 occurred in the past seven months, indicating a slowing trend.
Models suggest OER will increase in the 35bp to 40bp range in the coming months.

December Core PCE Prices +0.16%

Core PCE prices are projected to rise by +16bp, slightly higher than the +11bp increase in November.
12-month core PCE inflation is estimated at 2.82%, slightly above the 2.6% seen in July and August.
Headline PCE inflation is projected to rise to 2.56%, consistent with the FOMC's 2% target.

Forecasts for January CPI

Headline CPI is expected to increase by +31bp (seasonally adjusted), which is slightly below the +39bp increase in January 2023.
Core CPI is projected to increase by +37bp, indicating a stronger core inflation trend in January.
12-month headline CPI inflation is expected to remain at 2.9%, with a slowdown expected to begin in February.
Core CPI inflation is projected to stay near 3.2% to 3.3% in January.

Key CPI Components and Trends

Food and Energy

Food at home prices increased by +0.32%, with egg prices as a notable contributor.
Energy goods (e.g., gasoline) saw a significant increase, but the 12-month change remains negative.

Services and Goods

Core goods prices increased for a fourth consecutive month, but the increase was below expectations.
New vehicles prices increased by +0.47%, while used cars saw a +1.21% increase.
Medical care commodities and education and communication goods saw mixed results, with some categories declining.

Risks and Outlook

The possible imposition of tariffs on US imports from Mexico and Canada is an upside risk to inflation.
The longer-run inflation trend continues to be gradually down, with the headline CPI showing a slight increase.
The core CPI remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels due to rents and travel-related services.

Summary of Key Trends

Inflation is slowing overall, with core CPI remaining above pre-pandemic levels.
Volatility persists in services like airfares and lodging away from home.
OER is a significant contributor to core inflation, but the increase is slowing.
Vehicle prices remain a key driver of inflation, though expected to slow in coming months.
The next CPI release is expected to show weaker headline but stronger core inflation, with January typically seeing a larger seasonally-adjusted increase.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Headline and core CPI inflation trends.
Figure 2: Core CPI goods and services inflation.
Figure 3: Energy goods prices jumped in December but remain down over the past 12 months.
Figure 4: Energy services also increased solidly.
Figure 5: Food at home prices rose strongly due to egg price increases.
Figure 6: Food away from home prices slightly above pre-pandemic average.
Figure 7: Core CPI goods prices rose for a fourth consecutive month.
Figure 8: New car prices increased strongly again.
Figure 9: Used car prices increased, but less than in prior months.
Figure 10: Core goods prices outside transportation fell in nearly every category.
Figure 11: OER increased after a weak November rise, but the trend is slowing.
Figure 12: Core CPI services excluding housing rent rose by 21bp.
Figure 13: Lodging away from home prices fell in December.
Figure 14: Medical care services prices increased slightly less than last month.
Figure 15: Transportation services prices increased, but the trend is volatile.
Figure 16: Core services outside shelter, medical, and transportation rose moderately.
Figure 17: Inflation is picking up slightly, but the long-term trend is gradually down.
Figure 18: Rents accounted for half of the core CPI increase.
Figure 19: Rents and travel-related services drive core CPI inflation above pre-pandemic levels.
Figure 20: Percent change in CPI across categories.
Figure 21: UBS CPI forecast errors.
Figure 22: Projected CPI inflation in coming months.