UBS_Economics-APAC_Economic_Perspectives_Korea_large_tariff_shock,_ampli...-114579692_11页_1mb

报告摘要

UBS Global Research | APAC Economic Perspectives | 8 April 2025

Country Focus: Korea
Korea faces a 25% reciprocal tariff shock due to the US anti-dumping tariffs, effective April 9, significantly higher than expected. The tariff affects 22.3% of Korea's exports to the US, which account for 7.1% of Korea's GDP. Despite some exemptions under the KORUS agreement, the incremental tariff rate is substantial, potentially dragging down Korea's GDP growth by at least 0.5 percentage points. Additionally, UBS downgrades its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.9%, citing the trade shock.

Economic Impact

Direct tariff drag could lower Korea's GDP by at least 0.5 pts.
Global trade shock may lead to a 14.7% drop in real global imports, affecting the US economy, which in turn impacts Korea's growth through beta shock.
Consumer confidence remains low, and government uncertainty hampers effective policy response.

Potential Mitigation Strategies

** domestic spending boost**: Korea may attempt to narrow the $65 billion trade surplus with the US through increased imports of critical goods (e.g., machinery, beef) or expansion into U.S. production facilities.
Negotiation opportunities: The 2018 KORUS deal leaves room for further tariff reductions, though challenges in agriculture balancing may hinder progress.

External Uncertainties

Indirect risks: Korea's significant investments in Vietnam may face repercussions from Vietnam's high reciprocal tariffs.
Broader trade war escalation: Further global tariff escalations could exacerbate Korea's economic challenges.

Outlook

Forecast baseline adjustments: 2025 GDP expected at 0.8% vs prior 1.9%, with 2026 projected at 1.8%.
Monetary policy likely involves further BoK rate cuts.

Key Analyses