全球机器人_2026年人形机器人和四足机器人展望_9页_6mb

Nomura Robotics Market Analysis Summary

Date: 5 December 2025
Key Highlights:

1. Core Non-Robotics Businesses: Companies’ growth should not overlook humanoid robot potential, but delivery is delayed until 2027-2028 due to early-stage development.
2. China Robotics Market Focus: Prioritize firms with technological advantages or dominance in critical robotics subsystems, which will benefit when domestic volumes surge in 2026.
3. Strong Recommendations:
   • Shuanghuan Driveline (002472 CH): Buyside recommendation supported by Optimus chain, coaxial product growth, and consumer segment expansion.
   • Orbbec (688322 CH): Buy recommendation based on leadership in vision technology, strong payment and 3D printing growth prospects (2025 target price CNY46).
4. Global Robotics Mass Production Timeline:
   • Humanoid/Quadruped Robotics:

     Country	Company	Product	2025 Capacity	2026+ Growth Target
     China	Unitree, Agibot	Quadruped/Humanoid	3k-5k units/qtr	100k-1M units/annum
     US	Tesla, Figure, Agility	Humanoid	X (2025-2029)	Tesla: 1M/annum+
     Global	UBTech, Foxconn	Industrial/Consumer	Units ramping ~2k-5k qtr	Tens of thousands to millions

5. Valuation & Risks:
   • Double-Check: Shuanghuan (63% revenue growth CAGR) and Orbbec (67% sales growth) face risks like market competition and supply chain dependencies.
   • Forward Guidance: 2026 financial forecasts target revenue expansion and market penetration driven by robotics adoption.

Rating Distribution:

• Buy: Shuanghuan, Orbbec
• Neutral: Largely reserved for 2026 dynamics to unfold.
• Sector Outlook: Neutral-to-Bullish on Robotics as 2026 ramps ahead.

Notes:

• Investment advice; all risks highlighted within the full report.
• Web Version: Access via www.nomuranow.com.