20161018-USDA-Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_20页_822kb

报告摘要

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors for the period 2016-2017, including production, price trends, and export/import dynamics. It highlights the recovery in the beef industry, growth in poultry exports, and the impact of global market conditions on dairy and pork sectors.

Main Points

Red Meat and Poultry

Net Exports: Expected to increase in both 2016 and 2017, driven by U.S. beef and poultry production growth and lower prices.
Beef Exports: Rose by 30% in August 2016 compared to the same period in 2015, with strong gains in Asia and Mexico.
Poultry Exports: Increased by 4% in 2016 and 5% in 2017 due to strong foreign demand for low-priced protein.
Imports: Beef imports declined by 10% in 2016 and 11% in 2017 due to tighter supplies in Oceania and lower U.S. prices. Live cattle imports dropped 21% year-over-year in August.
Domestic Prices: Fed cattle prices fell to $105.90 in September, the lowest since 2011, with continued pressure expected in the fourth quarter.

Dairy

Milk Production: Increased by 1.9% in August 2016 compared to 2015, with a forecast of 212.7 billion pounds for the year.
Milk Cow Numbers: Rose by 16,000 in August 2016, reaching 9.360 million head, indicating a growing dairy herd.
Prices: All-milk price forecast for Q4 2016 is $15.85-$16.25 per cwt, down from $17.25-$17.75. Class III and IV prices also declined due to lower cheese and butter prices.
Exports: Forecast to increase in 2017, especially for nonfat dry milk and whey products, due to higher international prices from reduced Oceania and EU production.
Imports: Expected to rise slightly in 2017, with increased demand for butterfat products, milk protein concentrate, and whole milk powder.
Feed Prices: Remain low relative to milk prices, with the milk-feed ratio at 2.42 in August, up from 1.91 in June.

Pork/Hogs

Production: The September 2016 report showed record-high hog inventories and litter rates, signaling a significant increase in production for 2017.
Pork Production Forecast: Expected to reach a record 6.6 billion pounds in Q4 2016, with continued growth in 2017.
Prices: Hog prices are projected to fall in 2017 due to increased supply, with lean hog prices expected to average $36-$38 per cwt in Q4 2016 and $39-$43 per cwt in 2017.
Exports: Rose by 11% in August 2016 compared to 2015, with China and Japan being the top destinations.

Key Information

Exports

Beef: Net exports increased by 29.5% in August 2016, with the largest gains in Japan (+43.1%), South Korea (+70.4%), and Mexico (+30.3%).
Poultry: Exports rose to the highest levels since 2015, with strong foreign demand.
Pork: Exports increased by 11.4% in August 2016, with the largest share going to China/Hong Kong (30.6%).

Imports

Beef: Imports fell by 16% in August 2016, primarily due to declines from Australia and New Zealand.
Live Cattle: Imports dropped by 21% in August 2016, with the largest declines from Mexico.
Dairy: Imports increased by 0.1 billion pounds on both milk-fat and skim-solids bases.
Pork: Imports to China/Hong Kong increased, but the U.S. share was lower than in previous months due to stronger European competition.

Production Trends

Cattle/Beef: Cattle placements on feed in August 2016 were 15% higher than the previous year, with a forecast of 10.1 million head in feedlots.
Dairy: Milk production is expected to increase in 2016 and 2017, with a forecast of 217.3 billion pounds for 2017.
Pork: Hog inventories and litter rates reached record levels, indicating a strong production outlook for 2017.

Prices

Cattle: Fed steer prices fell to $105.90 in September 2016, the lowest since 2011.
Dairy: Butter and cheese prices weakened, while nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices rose.
Pork: Hog prices are expected to fall in 2017 due to increased supply.

Outlook for 2017

Beef Exports: Expected to increase by 9% in 2016 and 7% in 2017.
Dairy: Milk cow numbers forecast to rise to 9.395 million head, with increased exports and a potential record for skim-solids exports.
Pork: Production expected to increase by almost 4% in 2017, with lower prices anticipated due to higher supply.