20170516-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2017.05.16_20页_802kb

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-275) - May 16, 2017

Core Content

This report provides forecasts and outlook for U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry production and prices for 2017 and 2018. It highlights trends in production, trade, and market dynamics across key sectors.

Key Forecasts for 2018

• Red Meat and Poultry: Total red meat production is forecast at 54 billion pounds, up 2.8% from 2017. Poultry production is expected to reach 49 billion pounds, an increase of 1.9%.
• Dairy: Milk production is forecast at 222.0 billion pounds, a 2.4% increase from 2017. Total dairy exports are expected to rise to 2.84 billion pounds, while imports are forecast at 2.82 billion pounds.
• Pork/Hogs: Commercial pork production is projected at 26.9 billion pounds, up 3.3% from 2017. Hog prices are expected to average $42-$46 per cwt, a 3% decline from 2017.
• Poultry: Broiler production is forecast at 42.3 billion pounds, a 2% increase from 2017. Egg production is expected to rise to nearly 7.8 billion dozen, up 2% from 2017.

Main Points

Cattle/Beef

• 2017 Production: Revised down to 26.3 billion pounds due to lighter dressed weights and increased slaughter of cows and heifers.
• 2018 Forecast: Beef production is expected to increase by 2.3% to 26.9 billion pounds. Prices are forecast to decline year-over-year due to increased supply.
• Exports: March 2017 exports reached 234 million pounds, up 25% from March 2016. First-quarter exports were 22% higher than the same period in 2016.
• Imports: March 2017 imports were 271 million pounds, down 1% from the previous year. First-quarter imports were 12% lower than 2016.
• Trade Trends: Cattle imports are expected to increase slightly in 2018, while exports are forecast to rise to 120,000 head.

Dairy

• Milk Production: Forecast at 222.0 billion pounds for 2018, up 2.4% from 2017. Milk cow numbers are expected to average 9.425 million head.
• Prices:
  • NDM price forecast for 2017 is $0.875-$0.915 per pound.
  • Butter price forecast for 2017 is $2.115-$2.195 per pound.
  • Cheese and NDM prices are forecast to increase in 2018 due to higher demand.
  • Butter and dry whey prices are expected to decline in 2018 due to large stocks.
• Milk Prices:
  • Class III milk price is $16.40-$17.40 per cwt.
  • Class IV milk price is $14.40-$15.50 per cwt.
  • All-milk price forecast for 2018 is $17.55-$18.55 per cwt.
• Trade:
  • Cheese exports increased by 11.6% in the first quarter of 2017.
  • Whey product exports rose by 28.5%, with a significant increase to China.
  • Nonfat dry milk exports increased by 18.1%, with growth in Mexico and China.

Pork/Hogs

• 2018 Production: Forecast at 26.9 billion pounds, up 3.3% from 2017.
• Prices: Hog prices are expected to average $42-$46 per cwt, a 3% decrease from 2017.
• Exports: First-quarter 2017 exports reached 1.4 billion pounds, up 17% from the previous year. Mexico is the largest export market.
• Imports: Pork imports are forecast to fall 10% in 2018 due to lower U.S. prices.

Poultry

• Broiler Production: Forecast at 42.3 billion pounds for 2018, up 2% from 2017.
• Prices: Whole broiler prices are expected to be 85-92 cents per pound in 2018, down 1% from the 2017 forecast.
• Egg Production: Table egg production is forecast at nearly 7.8 billion dozen for 2018, up 2% from 2017. The hatching flock has been trending down, leading to reduced flock expansion.

Key Information

• Feed Prices: Expected to remain relatively low in 2017/18, supporting stable industry margins.
• Market Demand: Strong domestic and international demand is expected to drive growth in exports for most animal proteins.
• Trade Dynamics: The U.S. is expected to see increased trade volumes in 2018, with a focus on beef, dairy, and poultry exports.
• Challenges: Some products, like UF-85 milk and MPI, face declining demand in Canada due to competitive pricing and local production.
• Uncertainties: The impact of bird weight trends on poultry production growth remains uncertain.

Outlook Summary

• Beef: Production is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2018, with exports projected to increase.
• Dairy: Milk production is up 2.4%, with a focus on cheese and NDM exports.
• Pork: Production is forecast to increase by 3.3%, driven by new packing capacity.
• Poultry: Broiler production is expected to grow by 2%, but egg production growth may slow slightly.

Contacts and Links

• Authors:
  • Mildred Haley (mhaley@ers.usda.gov)
  • Keithly Jones (kjones@ers.usda.gov)
  • Russell Knight (Russell.H.Knight@ers.usda.gov)
  • Lekhnath Chalise (Lekhnath.Chalise@ers.usda.gov)
  • Jerry Cessna (jgcessna@ers.usda.gov)
  • Jonathan Law (jonathan.law@ers.usda.gov)
• Data Sources:
  • USDA Economic Research Service
  • USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
  • Global Trade Atlas