20180119-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2018.01.19_22页_1mb

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-283, Jan. 19, 2018)

Core Content

This report provides an outlook for the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors for 2018, based on the latest data and forecasts. It covers production trends, trade dynamics, and market conditions for beef, dairy, pork, and poultry.

Main Points

Red Meat and Poultry

• Per Capita Disappearance: The 2018 per capita disappearance of red meat and poultry is projected to be the highest since the series began, at 222.8 pounds.
• Production Increases: Beef, pork, and broiler meat production is expected to increase by 6.1%, 5.4%, and 2.1% respectively in 2018.
• Trade: Imports and exports are expected to be influenced by global demand and prices, with a focus on Asian markets for poultry and beef.

Cattle/Beef

• Cattle Placements: Cattle placements in feedlots were strong in the fourth quarter of 2017, with a 14.3% year-over-year increase in November. This suggests a return to a more typical seasonal placement pattern.
• Production Forecast: Beef production for 2018 is forecast at 27.8 billion pounds, up from the previous forecast due to higher expected marketings and slaughter.
• Import and Export Trends:
  • Beef imports for 2017 were revised upward to 2.98 billion pounds, with strong contributions from Australia and Canada.
  • Beef exports through November 2017 increased by 12.5% year-over-year, with significant growth in exports to Japan, South Korea, and other Asian countries.
  • Cattle imports for 2017 were revised upward by 10,000 head to 1.82 million head, while exports were revised upward by 20,000 head to 185,000 head.
  • Cattle export forecasts for 2018 have been revised upward by 15,000 head to 190,000 head.
• Prices:
  • Fed steer prices for the first half of 2018 are forecast at $120.00-$124.00 per cwt and $115.00-$123.00 per cwt for the second half.
  • The 2017/18 corn price forecast is $2.95-$3.55 per pound, up 5 cents from the previous month.
  • Class III and Class IV prices are forecast at $14.25-$15.05 and $13.55-$14.45 per cwt, respectively, while the all-milk price is forecast at $15.80-$16.60 per cwt.

Dairy

• Production and Use: Milk production for 2017 was revised down to 215.5 billion pounds, with a forecast for 2018 at 218.8 billion pounds, a 0.5 billion pound decrease from the previous forecast.
• Imports and Exports:
  • Milk-fat based imports for 2018 are forecast at 6.0 billion pounds, a 0.1 billion pound decrease from the previous forecast.
  • Skim-solids based imports for 2018 are forecast at 5.9 billion pounds, a 0.2 billion pound decrease.
  • Exports are forecast to increase slightly in both milk-fat and skim-solids bases.
• Domestic Use: Domestic use of dairy products is expected to be lower in 2018, with a forecast of 182.4 billion pounds.
• Prices:
  • Dairy product prices are forecast to decline in 2018, with cheddar cheese, dry whey, butter, and nonfat dry milk prices expected to range from $1.535-$1.615, $0.270-$0.300, $2.245-$2.355, and $0.715-$0.775 per pound, respectively.
  • Class III and Class IV prices are forecast at $14.25-$15.05 and $13.55-$14.45 per cwt, respectively.
  • The all-milk price for 2018 is forecast at $15.80-$16.60 per cwt, a decrease of 85 cents from the previous month's forecast.

Pork/Hogs

• Production Expansion: The U.S. hog production sector continues to expand, with strong year-over-year increases in animal inventories and litter rates.
• Production Forecast: Commercial pork production for 2018 is expected to be about 6.6 billion pounds in the third quarter and 7.3 billion pounds in the fourth quarter, both more than 5% above 2017 levels.
• Export Trends: Pork exports in November 2017 increased by 5% year-over-year, with strong growth in exports to Japan, South Korea, and China/Hong Kong, despite a decline to Mexico.
• Prices: Live equivalent hog prices are expected to range from $47-$51 per cwt in the third quarter and $40-$44 per cwt in the fourth quarter.

Key Information

Tables

• Red Meat and Poultry: Per capita disappearance data for 2018 is projected to be 222.8 pounds.
• Dairy Forecast: Milk production for 2018 is forecast at 218.8 billion pounds, with a reduction in domestic use and imports.

Contacts and Links

• Authors: Mildred Haley, Russell Knight, Lekhnath Chalise, Jonathan Law, Jerry Cessna
• Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Foreign Agricultural Service

Dates

• Next Outlook Report Release: February 14, 2018
• Cattle Report Release: January 31, 2018
• Tables Release: January 30, 2018

Conclusion

The U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors are expected to see continued production growth in 2018, driven by increased domestic and international demand. However, trade dynamics and market conditions, including price trends and supply changes, are influencing both import and export forecasts. Domestic use is expected to remain stable, but with a focus on supply-side adjustments and potential market saturation.