20140117-USDA-Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_21页_514kb

报告摘要

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-235, Jan 17, 2014)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets in early 2014, focusing on the impacts of weather, holidays, and trade dynamics on production, prices, and inventories. It highlights key trends and forecasts for the 2014 season, including the effects of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PED) on the hog industry, the influence of trade agreements on dairy and beef exports, and the fluctuating production and price levels across various poultry products.

Main Points

Beef and Cattle

Impact of Weather and Holidays: Winter storms and holidays disrupted the flow of cattle from feedlots to packers, causing rapid price increases for fed cattle and beef.
Cow Slaughter Trends: Cow slaughter rates have remained high, potentially leading to a further decline in total cow inventories for January 1, 2014. This is due to the high slaughter rates seen over the past several years.
Price Outlook: Fed cattle prices are expected to remain above $130 per cwt in 2014, with potential for improved packer margins if cutout values continue to rise.
Trade Dynamics: U.S. beef exports increased by 4% in 2013, driven by strong growth in Asia. Imports from New Zealand and Australia rose, while imports from Canada and China/Hong Kong declined.

Pork and Hogs

PED Impact: The presence of PED in the U.S. swine herd has caused significant declines in the number of young pigs, particularly in states like Iowa, North Carolina, and Oklahoma.
Production Forecast: Despite PED, pork production is expected to rise in 2014 due to higher farrowing intentions and increased slaughter weights.
Export Trends: U.S. pork exports to key markets fell in November, with notable declines in Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Mexico remained the largest market, with record purchases.
Inventory Adjustments: The December report revised 2013 pork production and slaughter numbers, indicating a 2% increase in the annual pig crop.

Poultry

Broiler Production: Broiler meat production in November fell by 1.4% compared to the previous year, but the first 11 months of 2013 showed a 1.6% increase. The production forecast for 2014 is 38.9 billion pounds, a 3% increase.
Stock Levels: Broiler cold storage holdings increased by 64% in November, leading to lower wholesale prices for many products. However, prices for whole birds and turkey parts are expected to rise due to reduced stocks.
Turkey Production: Turkey meat production in November dropped by 7.2%, with fourth-quarter 2013 production revised down by 25 million pounds. Turkey stocks fell to 219 million pounds, down 14% from the previous year.
Egg Production: Table egg production increased by 1.4% in November, driven by strong prices and a slightly higher rate of lay.

Key Information

Beef/Cattle

Cattle Imports: Raised to 1.99 million head in 2013 due to stronger imports from Canada and Mexico. Forecast for 2014 is 1.95 million head, a 2% decline.
Beef Exports: Increased by 4% in 2013, with significant growth in Asia. Forecast for 2014 is 2.335 billion pounds, but overall exports are expected to fall 8% due to lower production.
Cow Slaughter: Expected to decline in 2014, which may lead to higher cow prices.

Pork/Hogs

Farrowing Intentions: Producers plan to farrow 1.4% more females in the first half of 2014, leading to a 2% increase in the annual pig crop.
Slaughter Weights: Higher live weights are expected to boost pork production despite PED.
PED Effects: Noted in lower under-50-pound pig inventories, particularly in affected states.
Export Trends: U.S. pork exports to key markets declined in November, with Mexico and China/Hong Kong being the top destinations.

Poultry

Broiler Production: Declined in November due to fewer slaughter days, but overall production for 2013 is up 1.6%. Forecast for 2014 is 38.9 billion pounds.
Broiler Stocks: Cold storage holdings increased significantly, leading to lower prices for most products.
Turkey Production: Declined in November and the fourth quarter of 2013, with a forecast of continued lower production through mid-2014.
Egg Production: Increased by 1.4% in November, with a slight rise in the number of hens and rate of lay.

Outlook

Price Volatility: Expected to continue due to weather disruptions, holidays, and trade dynamics.
Production Trends: Broiler and turkey production may rise in 2014 due to increased feeding and lower slaughter numbers, while pork production is likely to increase due to higher farrowing intentions and slaughter weights.
Export Markets: Strong demand in Asia and Mexico supports beef and pork exports, but competition and economic conditions may affect future trends.
Inventory Adjustments: Continued adjustments in inventory levels are expected to influence prices and market dynamics across the livestock sector.

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