2023-12-26-ITIF-2023年中国主导战略性产业_留给美国的时间不多了_131页_1mb

The Hamilton Index 2023 highlights China’s emergence as the dominant producer in strategically important advanced industries. China’s output, particularly in sectors like basic metals, chemicals, and machinery, exceeds global averages, surpassing the US and other G7 and OECD nations. This dominance stems from aggressive industrial policies and rapid economic growth since joining the WTO. Over the 1995–2020 period, China captured over 80% of gains in non-OECD countries, significantly eroding the market share of Western economies, especially in industries like electronics, chemicals, and metals.

The global economy's share of the Hamilton Index (10 advanced industries) has remained stable at around 11.8%, emphasizing a zero-sum competition for market share. Countries like Taiwan and South Korea show strong industrial specialization, particularly in semiconductors and electronics,
while others, including the US, UK, and France, have seen relative declines. The US, for instance, has a lower specialized output in most industries except IT services and aerospace, with its momentum declining since the 2000s due to deindustrialization and policy challenges.

The report concludes that the 2020s are a critical period for the US to reverse its industrial decline, as China’s continued market share growth threatens long-term economic and national security. Immediate policy actions, including comprehensive national industrial strategies, tax incentives, and regulatory reforms, are recommended to match China’s output levels.

Key findings:

1. China’s Dominance: Leads globally in 10 advanced industries, with a particularly strong presence in basic metals, chemicals, and machinery.
2. Zero-Sum Competition: Shifts in market share directly impact national economic and security interests.
3. US Decline: Structural weaknesses in US advanced manufacturing, masked by growth in IT services, demand urgent policy intervention.
4. Call to Action: Congress should prioritize closing the $1.5 trillion output gap through strategic national policies.