2023-12-26-ITIF-2023汉密尔顿指数_中国主导全球战略产业_131页_1mb

Summary of The Hamilton Index, 2023: China Is Running Away With Strategic Industries

Core Content

The Hamilton Index, developed by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF), evaluates the global performance of strategically important advanced industries. These industries include pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment, machinery and equipment, motor vehicles, other transportation equipment, computer and electronic products, information technology and information services, chemicals, basic metals, and fabricated metals.

As of 2020, China has emerged as the dominant force in these industries, producing more than any other nation in absolute terms and more than all but a few in relative terms. The U.S. and other G7 and OECD economies have seen their market shares decline, with China capturing over 80% of non-OECD countries' gains from 1995 to 2020.

The total global output of Hamilton Index industries in 2020 was $10.1 trillion, representing 11.8% of the global economy—nearly the same as in 1995, highlighting the zero-sum nature of competition in these sectors. The IT and information services industry is the largest, contributing 18% of global advanced industry output.

Main Points

• China's dominance in strategic industries is due to focused policies, rapid growth, and specialization.
• The U.S. has fallen behind in relative specialization and market share, with its location quotient (LQ) in Hamilton industries at 0.87, indicating it is underperforming compared to the global average.
• To match China's level of specialization, the U.S. would need to increase its output in Hamilton industries by $1.5 trillion (69%), which would require doubling output in most of these sectors.
• The 2020s are seen as a decisive decade for the U.S. to reverse its decline in advanced industries, as China's increasing market share could permanently weaken U.S. and allied industrial capacities.
• Congress is urged to make closing the U.S. advanced industry output gap a central economic policy goal, through tax, trade, and other national strategies.

Key Industries and Their Performance

The following table summarizes the leading producers and their LQ (Location Quotient) for each industry in 2020:

Relative Momentum and Growth Trends

• Taiwan led in momentum with an index of 1,503, driven by its computers and semiconductors sector.
• The U.S. momentum score was slightly below the global average, with 53% of its score coming from IT and information services.
• China's momentum score was more than double that of the U.S., and it was relatively diversified with basic metals being its strongest industry.
• From 1995 to 2020, China's share of global advanced industry output increased by 22 percentage points, while OECD and G7 nations saw declines of 26.8 and 27.9 percentage points, respectively.
• The U.S. share fell from 24% in the 1990s to 15% in 2020, while China's share rose from 3% to 25%.

Global Market Share Shifts

• Non-OECD countries captured 26.8 percentage points of market share in Hamilton industries from 1995 to 2020, with China driving most of the gains.
• Basic metals and chemicals saw the largest increases in non-OECD market share, while IT and information services and pharmaceuticals remained strong in the OECD.
• The U.S. and Europe are strong in IT and information services, but their relative decline in other sectors is a concern.

Conclusion

The Hamilton Index reveals a shifting global industrial landscape, with China gaining significant market share in strategically important industries, while the U.S. and OECD nations face declining influence. The zero-sum competition underscores the importance of industrial policy for maintaining economic and national security. The 2020s are seen as a critical period for the U.S. to reverse its decline and rebuild its advanced industry capabilities, or risk becoming a deindustrialized economy similar to the United Kingdom.