ITIF-2023年中国主导战略性产业：留给美国的时间不多了（英）-2023.12-131页_1mb

• The Hamilton Index tracks 10 strategically important advanced industries, with China now dominating all of them in absolute terms and surpassing the US.
• China's gains have primarily come at the expense of the US and other G7/OECD economies, with its global market share increasing by 22 percentage points to 25% between 1995 and 2020.
• The overall share of these industries in the global economy remained stable at around 11.8%, indicating a zero-sum competition where every country's gain is another's loss.
• China is 70% more specialized than the US (LQ 1.47 vs. 0.87) in advanced industries, requiring a nearly $1.5 trillion increase in US output to match.
• The decisive decade for reversing this trend appears to be the 2020s, as China risks permanently weakening allied and US production once it captures sufficient global market share.
• Policy recommendations call for making closing the advanced-industry output gap an overarching economic policy goal through tax, trade, and comprehensive industry strategies.

Notable data points:

• China's gains have been most significant in motor vehicles (+21.8 percentage points), basic metals (+39.5 points), and chemicals (+25.3 points).
• The US lost nearly all market share in chemicals (-46.2 percentage points) and electrical equipment (-40.1 points) to China and other emerging economies.
• IT services remain the US's only competitive industry relative to China (LQ 1.47 vs. 0.54), though China has seen rapid growth in hardware sectors like semiconductors.