2025-05-20-Jefferies-ONTO（ONTO）_回归之路可能更长-下调至持有评级_13页_202kb

Downgrade to Hold: Jefferies downgrades ONTO to Hold due to extended challenges in AI Packaging correction through 2026, leaving 2027 uncertain for revenue growth recovery. This is driven by issues like HBM digestion, CoWoS share loss, and weak demand in advanced nodes.

Key Financials: Market cap at $5.0B. Projected EPS reaches $6.94 by 2027, supporting a $110 price target. Revenue is expected to increase from $987.3M in 2024 to $1,142.6M by 2027, with stabilization in 2025 but risks of flat Q3 performance.

Strategic Challenges: HBM sales are forecast to decline 40% YoY in 2025 due to Samsung's qualification delays. CoWoS-related tool sales drop to $100M in 2025 from $150M in 2024, due to competitors like KLAC capturing market share in higher-resolution applications. Advanced Nodes show growth but face tough comparisons in 2026.

Risks and Uncertainties: Slower inventory correction, potential margin compression, and difficulties in share recapture could hinder recovery. HBM digestion may extend through 2026, and advanced node competition remains intense.

Opportunities: Benefits from US semiconductor onshoring trends, advancing AI and connectivity trends increasing demand for metrology tools, and potential for improved margins through scale as revenue grows.