2025-06-14-Jefferies-阿科玛（AKE）_下调至持有评级；增长型投资对回报的拖累时间更长_11页_328kb

Arkema Equity Research Report Summary (June 15, 2025)

Key Rating Change

• Downgrade to HOLD from prior BUY rating due to overhang from growth investments delaying earnings.
• Target price reduced to €65/share from €80, reflecting a 6% decrease; valuation at 6.2x EV/EBITDA.

Reason for Downgrade

• Delayed earnings from growth initiatives (e.g., PA11, PVDF) and M&A, with €50mn less EBITDA in 2025 than company expectations.
• Challenges in achieving EBITDA targets due to weak macro environment and commodity chemical exposure.

Financial Forecast

• 2025 EBITDA forecasted at €1,378 million, 4% below consensus and 5% below previous estimates.
• Revenue projected to decline 2% in 2025; EPS expected to be €6.41, down 7.8% year-over-year.
• Longer-term EBITDA targets (2028-30) are 20% below company goals.

Operational and Strategic Outlook

• Growth investments lag behind expectations, with incremental EBITDA delayed.
• Reliance on end-market demand and macro conditions for earnings growth.
• Syensqo is a buy recommendation due to higher earnings growth potential.
• Commodity segments (Intermediates, Coating Solutions) are key drivers but face cyclicality.
• Expected medium-term portfolio stability, with unlikely large-scale divestments.

Valuation

• SOTP valuation at €66/share; DCF at €63/share, averaging €65.
• Trades at 25% EV/EBITDA discount to peers, unchanged from 3-year average discount.
• Catalyst: Q2 2025 results, forecasting €373mn EBITDA; potential upside from strong H2 guidance.

Risks and Assumptions

• End-market demand uncertainty; execution risks from M&A and portfolio changes.
• Input cost inflation and overcapacity in acrylic markets could compress margins.
• Sustainably focused on reducing GHG emissions by 38% by 2030.

Analyst Certification

• No compensation tied directly to report recommendations.