2025-05-22-Jefferies-费雪派克医疗保健公司（FPH）_2025财年预览临床实践与关税干扰；评级下调至持有_10页_284kb

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Equity Research Summary

• The report analyzes Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's FY25E performance forecast, driven by concerns over tariff impacts and expected margin trajectory. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy, with an unchanged price target of NZD 39.40.

• For FY25E, Jefferies forecasts revenue of NZD 1.9-2.0 billion, operating profit of NZD 474 million (slightly below consensus), and net profit of NZD 353 million (meeting consensus). Key focus areas include gross margin targeting 62.5%, influenced by tariffs on imports, particularly affecting New Zealand products with a 10% duty and potential delays from US SMCA non-compliant goods.

• Tariff uncertainty remains a risk, as changes could delay operational efficiencies and margin gains by several years, given current gross margin at 61.9%. FPH is exploring mitigation strategies, such as sourcing adjustments, to offset these challenges.

• Clinical practice shifts are key growth drivers for new applications, particularly in hospital settings. Ongoing changes are expected to sustain revenue growth, though FPH's ability to influence practice adoption needs further update. Hospital utilisation is stable, with revenue growth in hospital hardware, but budget constraints may limit capital spending despite overall adequacy.

• The investment thesis highlights FPH's dominance in hospital humidification and homecare devices, but risks include slower margin expansion, competition from GLP1 drugs in homecare, and macroeconomic headwinds. Valuation uses a blended DCF and multiple approach, with upside scenarios assuming strong growth in homecare and surgical humidification, while downside risks involve valuation shifts and increased competition.

• The company's environmental targets include emissions reductions and sustainable practices, with no major ESG red flags. Management was queried on tariff impacts and clinical adoption, but provided limited specific insights recently.

• Overall, the analysis is cautious, with unchanged valuation but reduced buy recommendation, following market volatility since tariffs were announced in February 2025.