英文_Jefferies_阿科玛（AKE）_下调至持有评级；增长型投资对回报的拖累时间更长_11页_689kb

Arkema Summary: Downgrade to HOLD

Core Content

Arkema SA is a global chemical manufacturer and seller, offering products in adhesive solutions, advanced materials, and coating solutions. The firm's performance and valuation have been assessed by Jefferies analysts, leading to a downgrade from BUY to HOLD. This decision is based on the company's struggles to achieve earnings growth from its growth investments and M&A activities, which are currently underperforming and delaying expected returns.

Main Points

• Earnings Progression: Arkema's growth initiatives, such as PA11, PVDF, Hydrogen Fluoride, and acquisitions like PIAM, Ashland Performance Adhesives, and Dow Flexible packaging, are not delivering the anticipated EBITDA growth. The incremental EBITDA from these investments is estimated at €50mn in 2025, compared to the company's expectation of over €80mn.

• EBITDA Targets: Jefferies forecasts that Arkema's EBITDA will be ~5% below the company's stated long-term targets and ~5% below the consensus estimates for the next three fiscal years. This underperformance is attributed to weak macroeconomic conditions and delayed earnings contributions from growth initiatives.

• Valuation: The price target has been reduced to €65/share, which is the average of the DCF (€63/share) and SOTP (€66/share) models. Arkema currently trades at a 25% EV/EBITDA discount to key peers, with a 44% P/E discount, both of which are expected to persist due to the commodity-driven earnings and the lack of significant portfolio changes.

• Earnings Mix: Commodity chemicals are expected to be the main driver of earnings growth over the medium term, despite starting from a low base. However, the company's reliance on commodity chemicals and macroeconomic conditions suggests continued vulnerability to market fluctuations.

• Divestitures and M&A: The analysts note that the lack of significant portfolio change or divestments, such as the Fluorogases business, continues to affect the company's valuation and return potential. While the company has headroom for further M&A, strategic changes remain unlikely in the medium term.

• Catalysts: The Q2 results on July 31, 2025, are seen as a key catalyst. Jefferies forecasts Q2 EBITDA at €373mn and FY25 EBITDA at €1.38bn, with a 1H/2H split of 51% / 49%, slightly below the five-year average of 53% / 47%.

• Investment Thesis: The investment case for Arkema is heavily dependent on its commodity chemical segments, which are showing higher earnings growth in Jefferies' forecasts. However, this growth is not sufficient to offset the overall underperformance relative to its stated targets.

Key Information

Financial Projections (Fiscal Years 2024–2027)

Jefferies vs Consensus

Valuation Metrics

Strategic Outlook

• Portfolio Changes: The analysts believe that large-scale divestitures or changes to the portfolio are unlikely in the medium term, which continues to overhang the company's valuation.
• Commodity Exposure: Arkema remains highly dependent on commodity chemicals, and its earnings are vulnerable to macroeconomic conditions.
• ESG Considerations: GHG emissions are a significant factor in valuation, and the company's ESG targets include a 38% reduction in absolute emissions by 2030 compared to 2015.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: HOLD
• Price Target: €65/share
• Expected Return: Between -10% and +15% over a 12-month period

Risks

• End-Market Demand: Weak macroeconomic conditions and declining demand in key sectors could further pressure earnings.
• M&A Execution: The delayed earnings contribution from M&A and growth investments indicates potential challenges in execution.
• Divestment Challenges: The inability to divest the Fluorogases business affects the company's ESG rating and valuation.
• Commodity Volatility: The company's exposure to commodity chemicals makes it sensitive to price fluctuations and input cost inflation.

Summary of Scenarios

• Base Case: €65/share (6.2x EV/EBITDA)
• Upside Scenario: €115/share (8.1x EV/EBITDA)
• Downside Scenario: €40/share (5.6x EV/EBITDA)

Analysts

• Chris Counihan
• Charlie Bentley
• Marcus Dunford-Castro
• Helena Xu

All analysts are employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC, and are not registered with FINRA. Therefore, they are not subject to certain FINRA rules and restrictions.