2023-02-10-莱坊-Prime_Global_Cities_Index_Q4_2022_2页_261kb

Prime Global Cities Index Summary - Q4 2022

Core Content

The Prime Global Cities Index for Q4 2022 reflects a continued slowdown in prime property price growth across global markets, with the overall index increasing by 3% on an annual basis. This is a decrease from the peak of 10% in Q1 2022, indicating a broader trend of deceleration in prime real estate markets.

Main Points

• Annual Growth Rate: The index's annual growth rate for Q4 2022 was 3%, down from 10% in Q1 2022.
• Global Trends:
  • 73% of the 45 cities in the index still showed prime price growth on an annual basis.
  • 12 cities saw prime prices decline over a 12-month period.
• Top Performing Cities:
  • Dubai led with an annual prime price growth of 88.8%, driven by new visa initiatives, rising demand from ultra-high-net-worth individuals, and a shortage of prime supply.
  • Tokyo recorded 22.8% annual growth, attributed to a limited prime supply.
• Declining Markets:
  • Wellington, Auckland, Stockholm, Vancouver, and San Francisco experienced some of the strongest price falls from their 2022 peaks.
  • London and New York saw a decline in their annual prime price growth to 1.5% and 4.1% respectively.
• EMEA Region:
  • EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) had the highest annual growth rate at 8%.
  • Zurich, Edinburgh, Dublin, and Paris were among the top-performing cities in the region.
• Asia-Pacific Region:
  • Tokyo, Mumbai, and Singapore were the top performers, with growth rates of 22.8%, 6.4%, and 3.9% respectively.
  • Hong Kong and Nairobi also showed positive growth, with 3.8% and 3.8% respectively.
• Americas Region:
  • Miami, Los Angeles, and Toronto were the top cities in the region, with growth rates of 21.6%, 7.9%, and 4.1% respectively.
  • San Francisco and Vancouver experienced significant price declines, with 0.7% and -7.4% annual growth.

Key Information

• Prime property definition: The most desirable and expensive property in a given location, typically the top 5% of each market by value.
• Macroeconomic factors: Higher interest rates and the rising cost of living have contributed to the slowdown in prime price growth.
• Future Outlook:
  • Homeowners are expected to face volatility in 2023 due to rising inflation and debt costs.
  • Prime prices would need to drop by 30-40% in some cities to return to pre-pandemic levels.
• Policy Impact:
  • Canada introduced a two-year ban on foreign buyers to cool price inflation and improve affordability.
  • China rolled back the "three red lines" policy to allow property developers greater access to credit.
  • Hong Kong is seeking to attract more family offices through tax concessions.

Research and Sales Enquiries

• Sales Enquiries: Contact Mark Harvey at +442078615034 or mark.harvey@knightfrank.com.
• Research Enquiries: Contact Kate Everett-Allen at +44 20 7167 2497 or kate.everett-allen@knightfrank.com.
• Sign up for: Kate's Global Residential Monthly Update.

Notes

• Data for New York relates to Manhattan up to November 2022.
• Data for Los Angeles, Miami, and San Francisco is up to October 2022.
• All data is sourced from Knight Frank's global network, with exceptions noted for specific cities.