2024-12-17-莱坊-Prime_Global_Cities_Index_Q3_2024_2页_113kb

Overall Summary

The Knight Frank Prime Global Cities Index (PGCI) for Q3 2024 tracks prime residential price movements in 44 cities worldwide. Overall price growth has moderated significantly, with an annual growth rate of 2.9% across the basket of cities, down from 3.4% in Q1 2024 and below the pre-pandemic high of 10.3% recorded in Q4 2021. This reflects a global slowdown in the housing market, influenced by factors such as central bank rate cuts.

Key findings from the index include:

• Growth Patterns: Out of 44 cities, 29 experienced price increases over the past year compared to the previous year. Additionally, 31 cities saw increases in the last quarter, with most showing modest gains. This indicates a cooling trend, but some markets remain resilient.
• Top Performing Cities: Dubai stands out with an impressive performance, boasting a 16.9% annual growth rate and a 190% increase since early 2020, far exceeding all other cities in the index during the pandemic era. Other strong performers include Manila (29.2% annual growth), Tokyo (12.8%), Mumbai, Miami, Los Angeles, and Nairobi.
• Declining Markets: Conversely, cities like Jakarta, Monaco, Wellington, and London recorded decreases in prices, with Monaco experiencing a -6% annual change and Wellington at -21%.
• Economic Factors: The slowdown is attributed to global economic conditions and the need for further central bank rate cuts, which have supported growth in recent quarters. Rate cuts are expected to ease interest rate constraints, potentially sustaining higher house prices in the medium term, especially in growth hotspots.

The report highlights that while the global market is facing moderation, regional variations exist, and factors like currency strength (e.g., the Japanese yen) and consumer demand continue to influence local markets. Further analysis suggests that additional stimulus through monetary policy could help maintain or boost growth in key cities.

Detailed data on top and bottom performer rankings based on post-pandemic growth changes are provided in the report, offering a comprehensive view of the global residential property landscape.