2022-11-08-莱坊-Prime_Global_Cities_Index_Q3_2022_2页_245kb

Summary of Prime Global Cities Index Q3 2022

Globally, prime residential price growth decelerated for the second consecutive quarter in Q3 2022, dropping to an average annual rate of 7.5% from a peak of 10% in Q1 2022. This decline is only slighting above the index's five-year average growth rate of 4.4%. In Q3 2022, seven cities recorded year-on-year price falls (an increase from six cities in Q2), while 19 cities saw price decreases between June and September 2022. Key cities in decline include San Francisco, Toronto, and several Chinese mainland cities, reflecting shifts in demand and economic conditions.

London experienced the fastest annual price growth at 2.7%, though New York's rate dipped to 5.2% from 7.1%, still exceeding its long-term average. European and Hong Kong markets showed mixed trends, with increases in places like Dubai and decreases in cities such as Stockholm and Vienna. Factors supporting prices in 2023 include strong labor markets, supply constraints, and lender resilience. However, transitions from low lending rates could introduce risks, particularly for leveraged landlords, potentially increasing inventory in some cities.

The slowdown is attributed to seasonal demand, capital flight to safe havens, and economic slowdowns, while future performance depends on interest rate changes and policy adjustments.