2024-02-02-IMF-进口关税和贸易政策不确定性的宏观经济后果_76页_3mb

The study analyzes the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty using Bayesian SVAR models. Protectionism has adverse consequences, reducing trade, investment, and output with an aggregate import elasticity of -0.8. Tariff shocks are more detrimental than uncertainty shocks, explaining ~10% of U.S. output variability compared to ~5% for uncertainty. Trade liberalization since the 1990s boosted output by 1-3%, while 2018 tariffs reduced output by ~4%. The findings suggest higher gains from stable free trade than partial or static models, with limited success in reallocating economic activity.

These effects were identified through combination of theory-consistent sign restrictions from a DSGE model and narrative restrictions from historical events. Tariff shocks negatively impact consumer prices, exchange rates, and output, while uncertainty shocks have weaker effects on output but increase prices. The identification restricts the output response to tariff level shocks to be negative.