外商直接投资回落-扭转局势的政策-世界银行_64页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Foreign Direct Investment in Retreat: Policies to Turn the Tide"

Core Content

This document analyzes the decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) since the global financial crisis and discusses the structural shifts and policy implications.

Recent Trends and Structural Shifts in FDI

Global Trends in FDI

Global FDI flows have declined significantly since the 2008-09 financial crisis.
During the 2000s, FDI inflows to EMDEs grew fivefold, reaching nearly 5% of GDP in 2008.
Since 2008, FDI inflows to EMDEs have averaged about $700 billion annually, but as a share of GDP, they have dropped to around 2%, less than half the peak level.
In 2023, EMDEs received $435 billion in FDI, the lowest since 2005.
The decline is broad-based, with about 60% of EMDEs and four out of six EMDE regions having lower FDI-to-GDP ratios in 2012-23 than in 2000-11.
Greenfield FDI, the dominant form of FDI to EMDEs, has declined by about 25% year-on-year in 2024.

Sectoral Composition

FDI inflows have shifted from manufacturing to services.
In 2019-23, nearly 65% of FDI inflows to EMDEs were in the services sector, up from 45% in the early 2000s.
Manufacturing-related FDI has fallen to less than 30% of total inflows in EMDEs.
The three largest EMDEs—China, India, and Brazil—received almost half of total FDI inflows to EMDEs during 2012-23.
China alone received nearly one-third of FDI inflows during this period, followed by Brazil (10%) and India (6%).

Macroeconomic Effects of FDI

Transmission Channels

FDI inflows are strongly correlated with economic growth and international trade.
The last two global recessions (2009 and 2020) were associated with sharp declines in FDI flows to EMDEs.
Greater trade openness and participation in global value chains (GVCs) are associated with higher FDI inflows.
A 1 percentage-point increase in trade integration is linked to an additional 0.6% of FDI inflows, while an increase in GVC participation is linked to an additional 0.3%.
Investment treaties can increase FDI flows between signatory states by more than 40%.

Impact on Economic Growth

In the average EMDE, a 10% increase in FDI inflows is associated with a 0.3% boost to GDP after three years.
The effect is stronger in countries with greater trade openness, stronger institutions, better human capital development, and lower informality, reaching up to 0.8%.
Low-income countries (LICs) lag in these dimensions, resulting in weaker FDI impacts on GDP.

FDI, the Energy Transition, and Climate Change

FDI can support the energy transition and climate adaptation by directing capital to sustainable projects and climate-resilient infrastructure.
It can also transfer environmentally friendly technologies and business practices.
However, the shift in FDI toward services has reduced its role in supporting manufacturing and energy-related investments.

Drivers of FDI

Motives for FDI

FDI is driven by both push and pull factors, including economic opportunities, political stability, and access to markets.
International integration and fragmentation play a key role in shaping FDI flows.

New Empirical Evidence

FDI inflows are more responsive to trade integration and institutional quality.
The literature on FDI has traditionally focused on short-run dynamics, but this document emphasizes long-term structural changes and their impact on FDI.

Global Economic Fragmentation and FDI

Geopolitical Tensions

Rising geopolitical tensions have significantly inhibited cross-border investment.
FDI flows between countries with the most pronounced differences in foreign policy are about one-eighth below the global sample median.

Regulatory Restrictions

FDI screening and other regulatory restrictions have increased, particularly in the 2020s.
Trade-distorting policy measures have proliferated, and progress on improving institutional quality has stalled.

Policy Priorities

National Policy Priorities

EMDEs should pursue reforms that foster a favorable investment climate, macroeconomic stability, human capital development, financial deepening, and reduction of economic informality.
These reforms are crucial to attract FDI and amplify its benefits for economic growth and development.

Global Cooperation

Global cooperation is essential to uphold a rules-based international system for investment and trade.
International organizations can support EMDEs by providing technical and financial assistance to facilitate structural reforms and enhance FDI inflows.

Conclusion

FDI inflows to EMDEs have weakened significantly, posing challenges for economic development.
The decline is attributed to weak macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and slowed structural reforms.
EMDEs should adopt a three-pronged strategy: attracting FDI, maximizing its benefits, and advancing global cooperation.
Policies that reduce trade and investment barriers, promote institutional quality, and support sustainable development are key to boosting FDI and enhancing its impact.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure ES.A: FDI-to-GDP ratio in EMDEs has dropped to around 2%.
Figure ES.B: A 10% increase in FDI inflows boosts GDP by 0.3% in the average EMDE after three years.
Figure ES.C: FDI is correlated with GDP growth, trade integration, and institutional quality.
Figure ES.D: Trade openness and GVC participation are important for FDI inflows.
Figure ES.E: Investment treaties have boosted mutual FDI flows by more than 40%.
Figure ES.F: FDI policy measures in EMDEs have become more restrictive in recent years.

References

World Bank data and analysis
CEPII, UNCTAD, Global Trade Alert, and other external sources
Studies by Fernandez-Villaverde, Mineyama, and Song (2024)

Notes

The document is a conference edition of the forthcoming book Global Economic Prospects, June 2025.
The World Bank Group plays a key role in mobilizing private capital and supporting EMDEs through technical and financial assistance.
The report emphasizes the need for EMDEs to address structural weaknesses and enhance global cooperation to support FDI flows.

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