2026年外商直接投资信心指数_31页_997kb

2026 FDI Confidence Index® Summary

Core Content

The 2026 FDI Confidence Index® highlights a global shift in investment strategies, driven by geopolitical tensions, industrial policies, and the accelerating importance of technological innovation. Despite uncertainties, a strong majority of investors remain optimistic about increasing their foreign direct investment (FDI) over the next three years.

Main Points

1. Global Investment Trends

• The global business community is recalibrating its investment approach, prioritizing innovation and production hubs over traditional safe bets.
• FDI flows are becoming more concentrated in developing Asia and nearshoring markets, reflecting a broader realignment of capital.
• Asia now holds the largest share of ranked markets for the first time in over a decade, with 10 out of the top 25 markets located in the region.

2. Top-Ranked Markets

• The United States remains the top-ranked investment destination for the 14th consecutive year, though its score and optimism have declined.
• Canada retains second place, with a notable rise in its score and strong investor sentiment.
• Japan and China rise to third and fourth, respectively, reflecting their growing appeal due to innovation and economic performance.
• Middle powers such as Singapore and Saudi Arabia make significant gains, entering the top 10 for the first time.

3. Key Drivers of Investment

• Technological and innovation capabilities are now the most important factor influencing FDI decisions, surpassing economic performance and regulatory efficiency.
• AI and digital infrastructure are key areas of investment, with record FDI in data centers.
• Natural resources remain a strong draw for some markets, particularly South Africa and Brazil.

4. Investor Sentiment and Risks

• Despite rising geopolitical tensions and political instability in developed markets, 88% of investors plan to increase their FDI in the next three years.
• The most likely risks identified by investors include rising geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, and political instability in advanced economies.
• Investors are diversifying geographically and using scenario planning and strategic foresight to manage risks associated with industrial policies and trade regulations.

5. Industrial Policy Impact

• Industrial policies are becoming a central consideration for investors, with 84% viewing them as "extremely" or "very" important.
• Infrastructure development, tax incentives, and subsidies are seen as the most effective tools of industrial policy.
• Investors are confident in managing industrial policy-related compliance and regulatory risks, with 86% expressing high confidence.

Key Markets and Their Rankings

Emerging Markets Index

• China, UAE, and Saudi Arabia lead the Emerging Markets Index for the third consecutive year.
• Thailand and Malaysia show significant gains, attributed to China+1 supply chain diversification.
• India and Vietnam also rise in the rankings, with India's labor pool and Vietnam's semiconductor ambitions being key factors.
• South Africa and Hungary see declines due to mining sector contraction and falling FDI inflows, respectively.

Net Optimism Rankings

• United Arab Emirates (42%), Japan (41%), and Canada (39%) show the highest net optimism for the three-year economic outlook.
• The United States (26%) and New Zealand (0%) see declines in optimism, reflecting concerns over geopolitical uncertainty and economic headwinds.
• Taiwan (China) experiences a 20-point increase in optimism to 37%, driven by economic recovery and tech-driven growth.

Conclusion

The 2026 FDI Confidence Index® illustrates a world in flux, where investors are strategically realigning their capital toward markets that offer innovation capacity, geopolitical stability, and economic resilience. While the U.S. remains the top destination, Asia’s growing influence and middle powers’ appeal are reshaping the global investment landscape. The rise of industrial policy and the increased focus on technology signal a new era of selective, forward-looking investment in an increasingly multipolar and uncertain world.