世界银行-黎巴嫩经济监测_2025年春季_扭转局势_（英）-2025_51页_1mb

Lebanon's economy remains fragile following the cessation of conflict in late 2024, with cumulative GDP contraction of nearly 40% since 2019. Projections for 2025 include 4.7% real GDP growth driven by tourism recovery, reforms, and a modest base effect, hampered by ongoing banking sector instability and limited capital inflows. Inflation is expected to moderate to 15.2%, supported by exchange rate stability but elevated due to domestic factors. Fiscal reforms are improving, with a balanced 2025 budget aiming for a zero deficit, but public spending remains constrained. The external sector faces a 15.3% current account deficit in 2025, exacerbated by high imports and informal economy distortions. Risks include global trade uncertainty, banking sector fragility, and slow implementation of reforms. A comprehensive one-year action plan under the Special Focus prioritizes macroeconomic stabilization, governance improvements, and investments in human capital and the private sector, aiming for inclusive and sustainable recovery through reforms based on lessons from decades of World Bank engagement.