海牙战略研究中心-社会政治不稳定观察者：2023年9月（英）-6页_905kb

Summary of The Socio-Political Instability Observer (September 2023):

The second Socio-Political Instability Survey conducted in September 2023, before the Hamas attack on Israel, highlights key drivers of global short-term instability. Experts surveyed emphasize that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a major source, through ongoing war escalation and its role in fueling geopolitical bloc formations. However, there is no perception of imminent escalation into a wider Russia-NATO conflict.

Africa, particularly Middle Africa, is identified as another primary source of future instability, with recent coups in September 2023 viewed as catalysts for "coup contagion," potentially escalating into other armed conflicts. Overall, instability is seen as heightened by diminishing multilateralism and a weakened international community, a trend noted in previous reports.

The survey results are based on 48 experts from universities, think tanks, and research institutes across 19 countries, with a focus on domains like international relations and security studies. Key findings include low risk of Russia-NATO escalation, China's significant global role, and vulnerabilities in U.S. foreign policy affecting multilateral stability. The survey aimed to assess instability drivers like economic, military, environmental, and demographic factors and is part of an ongoing series.

Quote from participants: Experts noted that tensions such as China-Taiwan and Russian-Putin meetings could impact global dynamics, while "America First" policies may weaken European security. The survey underscores the need for risk-reduction measures in conflicts and highlights Africa and Ukraine as top instability risks in the surveyed period.