20230528-广发期货-聚烯烃周报_市场交易重心仍在于压缩装置利润_但短期不建议过分追空_51页_4mb

报告摘要

Summary of 2023-05-28 Polyolefins Market Report

Date and Disclaimer: The report is dated May 28, 2023, and all views are for reference only. Readers must consult the disclaimer on the second-to-last page.
Overall Market Perspective: The market focus is on profit compression in production facilities, with short-term risks including macroeconomic uncertainties and potential supply increases, advising against aggressive short selling or buying bottoms.
Specific Recommendations:
- PP (Polypropylene):
  - Short bias, with support levels around 6800-6850.
  - Bottom range confirmed; avoid chasing the market due to weak demand.
- LL (Linear Low-Density Polyethylene):
  - Long bias; maintain long positions or seek entry points due to better cost support and macroeconomic potential.
- Spread Strategies:
  - LL-3MA: Suggest widening strategies.
  - L-P (PP-LL spread): Short-term expectation for contraction followed by expansion; maintain a long outlook for widening over time.
Key Drivers:
- Supply: Increasing output due to post-maintenance restarts; PP supply remains high, LL supply sees moderate increases.
- Demand: Weak in both PP and LL sectors; seasonal demand has not yet arrived, limiting upward price drivers.
- Costs: Short-term profit compression in oil-derived and other processes; lower energy prices may support but could face macro risks.
- Macroeconomic: External risks, such as US debt negotiations and oil price volatility, may influence confidence but do not fully offset supply-demand imbalances.
Recommendations and Warnings: Short-term caution is advised due to profit margins; LL shows slight better prospects from cost and macro factors. Overall, the market is in a technical correction phase, with opportunities in specific strategies but risks of continued downward pressure from weak fundamentals.