20250608-国泰期货-GTJA_Futures·Energy_Chemical_Industry_Weekly__PR,_PF_42页_3mb

GTJA Futures · Energy & Chemical Industry Weekly: PR, PF Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market conditions and trends in the PET Resin (PR) and Direct Spinning Polyester Staple Fiber (PF) sectors, focusing on valuation and profit, fundamental operations, supply-demand balance, inventory levels, and plant dynamics. The insights are based on recent market data and industry reports, offering both short-term and medium-term outlooks.

PET Resin (PR)

Key Insights

• Supply-Demand Balance:

  • Factory and societal inventories are building up in sync, with the overall factory operating rate at 89.4%.
  • Some factories are maintaining high operating rates despite weak fundamental support due to locked-in low-cost raw materials.
  • The report suggests that production cuts may expand in late June, leading to a potential weakening of the supply chain.
  • Export shipments are expected to decline sequentially due to rising freight rates and price gaps between domestic and international markets.

• Valuation and Profit:

  • The PET resin spot processing fee has further compressed, reaching 250-290 yuan/ton, nearing historical lows.
  • The PET resin - chip spread has remained at historical lows since 2024, with only a few facilities capable of conversion.
  • The PF-PR spread may widen due to planned mass production cuts in PF and resumption of maintenance in PR plants.

• Market Trends:

  • The single-sided price is in a range-bound market, with short-term focus on U.S.-China trade easing expectations.
  • In the medium term, the market is expected to weaken due to production cuts and low processing fees.
  • It is recommended to establish long processing fee positions on dips.

• Inventory Levels:

  • Factory inventory is at 16-17 days, while social inventory is expected to rise to 2.96 million tons by June.
  • Export dependence remains high, with the export volume reaching 688,000 tons in April 2025, up 27.3% YoY.

• Plant Status:

  • Sanfangxiang has expanded its production cuts to 1.8 million tons.
  • Hua Run Jiangyin has temporarily shut down a 600,000-ton unit due to malfunctions.
  • The report suggests that production cuts may occur if processing fees continue to decline, with an estimated 10% cut needed for May to balance supply and demand.

Direct Spinning Polyester Staple Fiber (PF)

Key Insights

• Supply-Demand Balance:

  • Demand has fallen short of expectations, with no significant export surge as previously anticipated.
  • The increase in shipping rates has impacted June export orders and shipments.
  • Downstream demand is expected to be transmitted via pulse restocking, with the focus on inventory digestion.

• Valuation and Profit:

  • PF spot prices and basis remain stable with fluctuations.
  • PF processing fees have remained low, with a slight rebound this week.
  • Processing fee valuations are low, and production cuts may occur if the trend continues.

• Market Trends:

  • The single-sided price is in a range-bound market, with short-term focus on U.S.-China trade easing expectations.
  • In the medium term, the market is expected to weaken due to downstream summer off-season load reduction and marginal production cuts.
  • Short fiber operating rates remain high at 92.2%, but may decline if processing fees further deteriorate.

• Inventory Levels:

  • Short fiber inventories are neutral, with 1.4D entitlement inventory at 12.1 days and physical inventory at 19.4 days.

• Plant Dynamics:

  • Jiangyin Sanfangxiang has reduced output by 200 tons/day.
  • Jiangsu Jiangnan has reduced output by 110 tons/day.
  • Jilun is expected to resume operations next week.

Key Market Observations

• PTA (Paraxylene):

  • PTA processing fees remain low, with polymerization costs slightly decreasing to 5650-5700 yuan/ton.
  • PTA load index and total inventory are stable, with domestic inventory around 2.69 million tons by the end of April.

• MEG (Ethylene Glycol):

  • MEG marginal profit is under pressure, with a Naptha spread showing weakness.
  • MEG total inventory is expected to rise, and export margins are compressed.

• Downstream Demand:

  • Beverage industry showed improved production and sales in April, but growth remains low.
  • Edible oil demand has seen seasonal improvement, with a 4.4% YoY increase in catering revenue.
  • Weaving operations are stable but show some seasonal load reductions.
  • Polyester yarn operating rates are slightly increasing, but greige fabric prices remain stable with cash flow losses.

• Textile and Apparel Exports:

  • April exports were generally satisfactory, with volume growth and price declines.
  • Cumulative exports in Jan-Apr 2025 are down 1.5% YoY.
  • Apparel and clothing accessories exports in April grew 14% YoY, but processing margins are still insufficient.

• Overseas Retail:

  • European apparel retail shows high growth, with UK retail sales up 8% YoY.
  • U.S. retail inventory is slightly declining month-on-month, but remains high.
  • U.S. wholesale inventory has seen a month-on-month decline of 0.28%, but the inventory sales ratio is still 217.

Summary

• PET Resin and Polyester Staple Fiber markets are currently in a range-bound state with weak fundamentals.
• Factory and societal inventories are accumulating, indicating supply pressure and demand weakness.
• Export performance is influenced by freight costs and price gaps, with short-term optimism but medium-term pessimism.
• Processing fees are at historical lows, with potential for further compression.
• Plant dynamics show maintenance and production cuts, which may impact inventory levels and market prices.
• Downstream sectors such as beverage and edible oil show moderate demand, while textile and apparel face challenges in profitability and demand transmission.

Key Figures

• PET Resin factory operating rate: 89.4%
• PET Resin social inventory: ~2.96 million tons by June
• PF factory operating rate: 92.2%
• PF 1.4D entitlement inventory: 12.1 days
• PF physical inventory: 19.4 days
• April PET resin exports: 688,000 tons (+27.3% YoY)
• April apparel and clothing accessories exports: 116.07 billion yuan (+2.2% MoM)
• April edible oil output: +3.4% YoY
• April beverage production and sales: +3.9% and +0.3% YoY respectively

Conclusion

Both PET Resin and Polyester Staple Fiber markets face supply-side pressure and weak demand, leading to inventory accumulation and low processing fees. The short-term outlook is range-bound, influenced by U.S.-China trade expectations, while the medium-term outlook is weak due to potential production cuts and seasonal demand reductions. Export volumes are high, but margins are under pressure, and inventory feedback could lead to further price declines. Investors are advised to monitor processing fee movements and plant operations closely for market signals.