20241020-国泰期货-GTJA_Futures·Energy_Chemical_Industry_Weekly__Natural_Rubber_22页_1mb

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Guotai Junan Futures Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber
Date: October 20, 2024

China's Rubber Imports Declined
In September, China's natural and synthetic rubber imports fell 2.1% year-on-year (614,000 tons), with total imports for the first nine months down 13.3% (5.128 million tons).
China's Tire Exports Rise
China exported 6.94 million tons of rubber tires in the first nine months, a 4.4% year-on-year increase. New pneumatic tires also saw modest growth.
Global Light Vehicle Sales Decline
September global light vehicle sales decreased 3.6% year-on-year, reflecting sluggish demand in key markets like China and the U.S.
China Auto Production/Sales Mixed
September auto production and sales declined year-on-year but rose month-on-month. Cumulative results showed a modest year-on-year increase.
Côte d'Ivoire Rubber Exports Declined
The country's rubber exports fell 3.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters, reversing recent growth trends.

Natural Rubber Spot Prices: Supportive due to cost and supply factors, though imported markets showed volatility.
Commodity Spreads:
- STR20 (MIX) - RU2501, SVR3L - RU2501, and RSS3 - RU2501 spreads indicate mixed market sentiment.
- SBR and BR prices fluctuate relative to rubber futures.
Regional Imports: Vietnam and Thailand remain key suppliers, but supply tightness is notable.

Tire Market: Steady tire exports and slight increases in passenger car sales suggest demand persistence, though heavy truck sales fell.
Inventory Levels: Natural rubber inventories are tight, though tire inventories and operating rates remain moderate.

The market is expected to fluctuate widely due to tight supply and cautious demand.
Short-term spot prices remain firm, but medium-term sentiment is bearish.
Traders are advised to monitor inventories and global vehicle sales trends.

Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute | High-Grade Rubber Market Insights

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