20250622-国泰期货-GTJA_Futures·Energy_Chemical_Industry_Weekly_PR,_PF_42页_3mb

GTJA Futures Weekly Analysis: Energy & Chemicals – PR and PF Insights (June 22, 2025)

PET Resin (PR) Highlights

• Fundamental Challenges: Weak support due to persistent production cut expectations. Leading factories are set to implement a joint 20% output reduction from July, but confirmation of execution remains uncertain. This could lead to a tighter supply-demand balance this summer.

• Geopolitical Risks: Escalating conflict between Iran and Israel is expected to drive up costs and increase market volatility in the short term. High shipping rates may impact demand, with players cautious due to price pressures.

• Inventory and Prices: Factory and social inventories are building up, with estimated 18 days of plant inventory this week. Spot processing fees have hit new lows (200–270 RMB/ton), squeezing profits. Despite this, short-term gains are supported by cost-driven price increases.

• Export Dynamics: June-July exports show robust growth (e.g., 30.6% YoY increase in May), with shipments to Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Russia, and other regions key drivers. However, demand is weakening sequentially due to holiday effects and reduced domestic consumption.

• Industry Supply-Demand Balance: Tight equilibrium expected in July–August due to production cuts and seasonal slowdowns, but inventory management is key.

Polyester Staple Fiber (PF) Highlights

• Operations and Demand: High operating rates (around 95%) at staple fiber factories, with short-term gains expected from cost-push factors. Downstream textile weaving areas show reduced activity in key regions like Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

• Raw Material Costs: Increased agglomeration costs and fluctuating basis widen month-end spreads. PF margins are pressured, but slight destocking may boost liquidity.

• Inventory Levels: Restocking is hesitant, with inventories managed carefully amid weak demand from the food and beverage sectors, emphasizing seasonal uncertainties.

• Textile Demand: Retail consumption remains moderate, with soft consumer preferences affecting end-market performance, especially in apparel and home textiles.

Overall Market Dynamics

• Key Risks: Geopolitical uncertainties and supply-demand imbalances persist, with high volatility expected. Focus on cost-related calendar spreads and cautious long positions in raw materials.

• Outlook: Supply curbs in petrochemical chains may tighten conditions short-term, but demand uncertainties and inventory buildups cap gains. Quick responses to inventory-related front/mid-month dynamics are critical.

Disclaimer: This summary is based on GTJA Futures research and does not constitute investment advice. Market fluctuations may occur based on timely data updates.