2024-02-02-莱坊-Australian_Prime_Residential_Review_Q4_2023_5页_1mb

Australian Prime Residential Review - Q4 2023 Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the prime luxury residential sales and rental markets across major Australian cities, highlighting performance trends, growth rates, and future forecasts. It also outlines the wealth trends of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) and ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs), along with economic indicators and the lending environment.

Prime Residential Market Performance

Sales and Price Trends

• Sales Volume: Prime residential sales volume in the second half of 2023 was modest due to limited supply and strong demand.
• Annual Growth: Prime residential prices in Australia rose by 3.0% in the year to September 2023, outperforming the global average of 2.1%.
• City-Specific Growth:
  • Sydney: 4.2% annual price growth, ranked 8th among 46 global cities.
  • Gold Coast: 3.9% annual growth, ranked 11th.
  • Perth: 3.8% annual growth, ranked 12th.
  • Brisbane: 2.5% annual growth, ranked 15th.
  • Melbourne: 0.7% annual growth, ranked 26th.
• Rental Growth: Prime residential rents grew by 16.4% in September 2023, double the global average of 7.9%.
• City-Specific Rental Growth:
  • Brisbane: 19.8% annual growth, the strongest.
  • Sydney: 18.3% annual growth.
  • Melbourne: 17.0% annual growth.
  • Gold Coast: 16.3% annual growth.
  • Perth: 11.6% annual growth.
• Days on Market: The average number of days a prime home was on the market in September 2023 was 77 days, up from 62 days a year ago.
• Forecast: Prime prices are expected to rise by 3% in 2023, 4% in 2024, and 5% in 2025.

Wealth Trends

• HNWI Population: Australia's HNWI population (net wealth > $1 million) grew by 4.8% in 2022, reaching 2.21 million individuals.
• UHNWI Population: The UHNWI population (net wealth > $30 million) increased by 2.1% in 2022, totaling 17,456 individuals.
• Growth Projections:
  • HNWI population is expected to grow by 71.1% by the end of 2027, outpacing global growth of 56.9%.
  • UHNWI population is projected to grow by 40.9% over the next five years, surpassing the global UHNWI growth of 28.5%.
• Regional Share: The share of millionaires outside the four major cities is expected to increase from 40.2% to 42.6% by 2027.

Economic Indicators

• Economic Growth: Australia's economy grew by 2.1% in September 2023, with forecasts of 3.4% for the end of 2023, 1.3% in 2024, and 3.1% in 2025.
• Stock Market: The S&P/ASX 200 fell by 1.9% in Q3 2023, but the total annual change was 8.8%. Forecasted growth for 2023 is 2.2%, with 1.0% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025.
• Business Conditions: The NAB business conditions index was +7.5 in September 2023, down from +20.3 a year earlier.
• Company Profits: Annual company profits fell by 19.3% in 2022, with forecasts of 0.3% decline in 2023, 4.2% decline in 2024, and 1.7% growth in 2025.
• New Private Business Investment: Grew by 8.0% in the year to September 2023, higher than 6.8% the previous year.

Lending Environment

• Official Cash Rate: Set at 4.35% in December 2023, down from 3.10% a year ago. Forecasted to average 3.85% by the end of 2025.
• Mortgage Rates:
  • Owner Occupiers: Average mortgage lending rates for 3-year fixed loans increased by 51 bps to 6.56%, while standard variable loans rose by 175 bps to 8.52%.
  • Investors: 3-year fixed loans increased by 64 bps to 6.65%, and standard variable loans rose by 175 bps to 9.10%.

Key Figures

Conclusion

The Australian prime luxury residential market has shown resilience and strong performance, outperforming global averages in both price and rental growth. Despite economic uncertainty, the constrained supply and strong demand have supported continued price appreciation. The HNWI and UHNWI populations are also growing, with a notable shift in wealth distribution towards non-major cities. The lending environment remains tight, with rising mortgage rates impacting affordability, but the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory over the next few years.