2022-07-17-莱坊-Australian_Prime_Residential_Review_Q2_2022_11页_4mb

Australian Prime Residential Review Q2 2022 Summary

Core Content

The Australian prime residential market, particularly in major cities, has shown mixed performance in Q2 2022, influenced by global and local economic conditions, including inflation and rising mortgage rates. Despite the ongoing effects of the pandemic, the market continues to attract ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs), who are leveraging the current environment for investment and property transactions.

Main Cities Performance

Sydney

• Sales Volume:
  • March 2022 quarter: Down 37.4% to 860 homes.
  • Annual growth: Up 78.8% to 4,977 sales.
• Days on Market:
  • March 2022 quarter: 67 days.
  • One quarter ago: 72 days.
• Capital Growth:
  • Q1 2022: 1.8% increase.
  • Annual growth: 16.0% (up from 1.9% one year ago).
• Rental Performance:
  • Gross rental yield: 2.03% (down 3 bps from previous quarter).
  • Annual rental growth: 7.2% (up from 5.1% one year ago).
• Global Ranking:
  • 9th for capital growth, 7th for rental growth.

Melbourne

• Sales Volume:
  • March 2022 quarter: Down 56.9% to 163 homes.
  • Annual growth: Up 82.5% to 960 sales.
• Days on Market:
  • March 2022 quarter: 73 days.
  • One quarter ago: 78 days.
• Capital Growth:
  • Q1 2022: 2.1% increase.
  • Annual growth: 10.9% (up from 0.4% one year ago).
• Rental Performance:
  • Gross rental yield: 2.68% (down 4 bps from previous quarter).
  • Annual rental growth: 5.1% (up from 2.8% one year ago).
• Global Ranking:
  • 14th for capital growth, 10th for rental growth.

Perth

• Sales Volume:
  • March 2022 quarter: Up 116.9% to 193 homes.
  • Annual growth: Up 22.3% to 648 sales.
• Days on Market:
  • March 2022 quarter: 78 days.
  • One quarter ago: 93 days.
• Capital Growth:
  • Q1 2022: 0.7% increase.
  • Annual growth: 11.0% (up from 4.1% one year ago).
• Rental Performance:
  • Gross rental yield: 1.81% (up 3 bps from previous quarter).
  • Annual rental growth: 9.7% (up from 2.5% one year ago).
• Global Ranking:
  • 13th for capital growth, 11th for rental growth.

Brisbane

• Sales Volume:
  • March 2022 quarter: Down 28.9% to 194 homes.
  • Annual growth: Up 125.2% to 831 sales.
• Days on Market:
  • March 2022 quarter: 79 days.
  • One quarter ago: 101 days.
• Capital Growth:
  • Q1 2022: 1.8% increase.
  • Annual growth: 11.3% (up from 3.8% one year ago).
• Rental Performance:
  • Gross rental yield: 2.32% (up 1 bp from previous quarter).
  • Annual rental growth: 8.1% (up from 2.3% one year ago).
• Global Ranking:
  • 12th for capital growth, 11th for rental growth.

Gold Coast

• Sales Volume:
  • March 2022 quarter: Down 9.4% to 259 homes.
  • Annual growth: Up 100.2% to 987 sales.
• Days on Market:
  • March 2022 quarter: 81 days.
  • One quarter ago: 99 days.
• Capital Growth:
  • Q1 2022: 3.1% increase.
  • Annual growth: 19.3% (up from 3.5% one year ago).
• Rental Performance:
  • Gross rental yield: 3.39% (up 1 bp from previous quarter).
  • Annual rental growth: 19.6% (up from 9.8% one year ago).
• Global Ranking:
  • 7th for capital growth, 1st for rental growth.

Key Drivers of the Market

• UHNW Population Growth:
  • Grew by 10.1% in 2021 to 20,874 individuals with net wealth over US$30 million.
  • Forecasted to grow by 30.9% over the next five years.
• Business Investment:
  • Grew by 3.6% in the year to March 2022, down from 9.1% six months earlier.
• Business Conditions:
  • Rose to +18 index points in March 2022, up from +4 in September 2021.
• Company Profits:
  • Rose by 5.3% in 2021, and are expected to rise by 10.4% in 2022 before falling by 3.7% in 2023.
• Stock Market Growth:
  • S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.9% in Q1 2022, with an annual growth of 10.7% to March 2022.
  • Forecasted to grow by 17.5% in 2021, then 2.6% in 2022, and 3.7% in 2023.

Market Outlook

• Capital Growth:
  • Australia's prime residential market is forecast to grow by 4% in 2022, 0% in 2023, and 2.2% in 2024.
• Rental Growth:
  • Average gross rental yield increased by 1 bp to 2.56%.
  • Rental growth in Australia was 9.8% annually, slightly below the global average of 11.9%.

Summary of Key Trends

• The prime residential market continues to be driven by UHNWIs, who are using the low interest rate environment for investment.
• Construction delays and the return of international buyers and expatriates have led to increased demand and extended rental periods.
• The Gold Coast outperformed other major cities in both price and rental growth.
• Sydney and Melbourne experienced lower growth compared to the global average due to the impact of the pandemic on short-term rentals and international activity.
• Brisbane and Perth saw strong annual growth in sales and prices, though their rental growth was lower than the Gold Coast.
• Overall, the market is expected to stabilize with modest growth in the coming years, driven by ongoing undersupply and the continued presence of UHNWIs.