2025-06-10-花旗集团-柯林斯食品有限公司（CKF）_柯林斯食品有限公司（CKF.AX）_对即将公布的2025财年业绩的预期_20页_909kb

Collins Foods Ltd. (CKF.AX) Analysis Summary

Investment Outlook

• Recommendation: Buy-rated by Citi Research. Potential expected share price return of 25.3% and total return of 28.1%.
• Key Drivers: Improved SSS growth in Australia (passed inflection point) due to better execution and cyclical recovery, along with COGS tailwinds. Accelerated store development in Germany provides low-risk growth, reducing reliance on the declining Netherlands market.
• Valuation: Target price of $9.60, based on blended DCF ($7.13), sum-of-parts ($10.79), and PE relative valuation ($8.27). Current market cap is approximately $903 million.
• Financial Highlights (for 2024-2027):
  • Revenue: $1,489 million in FY24, expected to reach $1,519 million in FY25 with potential challenges.
  • EBITDA: $230 million in FY24, projected to $220 million in FY25.
  • Core EPS: $50.5 in FY24, down to $20.3 in 2025E, then growing to $46.2 in 2026E.
  • Profitability metrics: PE ratio ranges from 13.7 to 37.7, with P/Operating Cashflow at 6.5 in 2027E.

Risks and Upside

• Downside Risks: Higher-than-expected cost pressures, delays in store rollouts, or a decline in consumer demand.
• Upside Factors: Successful turnaround of Taco Bell, faster-than-expected store growth in Germany, or increased consumer demand.
• Recent Developments: Slight easing in buying pressures for KFC Australia, with market conditions noted as gradual recovery. Middle East conflict impact likely less severe in 2025.

Key Recommendations

• Focus on core KFC Australia franchise (96% of FY24 EBITDA) and opportunistic growth in Germany.
• Valuation appears undemanding compared to peers and historical data.

Disclaimer

This summary is based on the Citi Research report dated 11 June 2025. It excludes detailed financial data, charts, and legal disclosures. Investors should review the full report and consider thematics such as past performance, forecasts, and fundamental risks before decision-making.