2025-06-10-花旗集团-马自达汽车（7261）_马自达汽车（7261.T）_维持卖出评级-预测2026财年3月运营亏损及股息削减_16页_618kb

Mazda Motor Citigroup Analysis Summary

Citi Research maintains a Sell rating on Mazda Motor (7261.T) with a revised target price of ¥780 per share, down from a previous ¥1,000, reflecting adjusted expectations for fiscal year 3/26. The key factors driving the Sell recommendation include:

• Sales and Profit Decline: Sharp drop in U.S. sales due to reduced incentives and ongoing 25% tariffs, leading to an expected operating loss of ¥80 billion in FY3/26, which could persist even if tariffs fall to 10%. A dividend cut is anticipated.
• Valuation: Low profitability supports the use of a PBR (price-to-book ratio) of 0.3x for valuation, down from previous multiples, due to heightened risk of earnings deterioration.
• Opportunities: Potential for earnings gains if tariffs ease, tariff negotiations progress, cost-cutting initiatives (aiming ¥200bn savings) succeed, or new models like the CX-5 drive growth in the second half of the year.
• Risks: Elevated consensus forecasts remain high; brand reform is incomplete, and sales could decline with price hikes and effective incentives. Tariff uncertainties (higher under a Republican administration) or regulatory compliance issues pose significant threats.

Citi expects a return to profit in FY3/27 through cost reductions but highlights ongoing risks such as forex rate volatility, semiconductor shortages, and competition from global trends, all of which could impact the stock price.