2025-06-10-花旗集团-力拓有限公司（RIO）_力拓有限公司（RIO.AX）_奥尤陶勒盖矿山计划再次调整；对力拓集团影响较小_12页_310kb

Summary of Citi Research Report: Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO.AX) - Oyu Tolgoi Mine Update

Mine Plan Update

Rio Tinto Ltd and the Oyu Tolgoi Board approved an alternative mine plan to address ongoing delays, including geotechnical challenges and licensing issues with Entrée Resources and the Mongolian government for transferring licenses to the Joint Venture area. This change optimizes Panel 0 (P0) and refines designs for Panels 1 and 2 to maximize ventilation system use and production timelines, with development work paused in the Entrée area until licenses are transferred. Resources are redeployed to accelerate work on Panel 2S, outside the Entrée JV area.

Production Impact

The mine's production ramp-up remains on track to deliver an average of ~500ktpa of copper from 2028 to 2036, with production from P0 and P2 scheduled for 2025 and 2026 respectively. Rio Tinto's 2025 copper guidance of 780 to 850kt remains unchanged. The delay is expected to have a modest impact on the overall copper profile, though gold grades in Panel 2S may lower by-product credits initially compared to Panel 1, potentially increasing unit costs until P1 production resumes.

Valuation

Based on a 50/50 combination of NPV and earnings multiples analysis, the one-year target price is A$130 per share (approx. US$100.52), reflecting expectations of stable demand and operational recovery. The core NPV valuation uses a discount rate of 7.5% real after-tax unlevered, a long-term A$/US$ exchange rate of 75¢, and an iron ore price forecast of US$85/t dry CFR. Multiples-based valuation employs a 6.5x EV/EBITDA for FY27E.

Risks

Key risks include lower-than-expected copper and gold prices, currency fluctuations, and country-specific risks (e.g., 20% of NPV from Africa and South America). Operating risks are relatively low due to Rio Tinto's diversified portfolio. If factors like these affect earnings more than anticipated, the stock may struggle to reach the target price; conversely, better-than-expected outcomes could exceed the target.

This report highlights a cautious outlook with minimal adjustment to RIO's 2025 guidance, maintaining a Neutral investment rating from Citi Research.